Thesis advisor: Christopher Maxwell / In this paper I present an econometric analysis of selection bias in the NBA Draft from 1995-2003. Employing an interval regression maximum likelihood control model that predicts the eventual value of players based on their Draft position, I pinpoint which groups of players consistently over-perform or under-perform relative to their Draft position. Using this analysis I detect bias pertaining to four different groups of players. There was a bias against high school players, especially those taken in the lottery (the top of the first round of the Draft), which may point to risk-averse tendencies of NBA teams. There was also a bias in favor of centers taken in the lottery, who were consistently drafted too high. Black players were selected too low in the first round, and too high in the second round. The final effect deals with foreign entrants to the Draft. From 1995-2001 foreigners were drafted too low; in 2002 and 2003, when more foreigners were selected, they were drafted too high. My paper details the nature of these biases and analyzes their potential causes. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2008. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics. / Discipline: Economics Honors Program. / Discipline: College Honors Program.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:BOSTON/oai:dlib.bc.edu:bc-ir_102273 |
| Date | January 2008 |
| Creators | Perry, Christopher Mattison |
| Publisher | Boston College |
| Source Sets | Boston College |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Text, thesis |
| Format | electronic, application/pdf |
| Rights | Copyright is held by the author, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise noted. |
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