Following the debate by empirical finance research on the presence of non-linear predictability in stock market returns, this study examines forecasting abilities of nonlinear STAR-type models. A non-linear model methodology is applied to daily returns of FTSE, S&P, DAX and Nikkei indices. The research is then extended to long-horizon forecastability of the four series including monthly returns and a buy-and-sell strategy for a three, six and twelve month holding period using non-linear error-correction framework. The recursive out-of-sample forecast is performed using the present value model equilibrium methodology, whereby stock returns are forecasted using macroeconomic variables, in particular the dividend yield and price-earnings ratio. The forecasting exercise revealed the presence of non-linear predictability for all data periods considered, and confirmed an improvement of predictability for long-horizon data. Finally, the present value model approach is applied to the housing market, whereby the house price returns are forecasted using a price-earnings ratio as a measure of fundamental levels of prices. Findings revealed that the UK housing market appears to be characterised with asymmetric non-linear dynamics, and a clear preference for the asymmetric ESTAR model in terms of forecasting accuracy.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:bl.uk/oai:ethos.bl.uk:552600 |
| Date | January 2011 |
| Creators | Clayton, Maya |
| Contributors | McMillan, David G. |
| Publisher | University of St Andrews |
| Source Sets | Ethos UK |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Electronic Thesis or Dissertation |
| Source | http://hdl.handle.net/10023/1898 |
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