In the wake of the 2016 election, the polling industry has no shortage of critics. While these are difficult times for the industry as a whole, there are exciting innovations happening that will serve to benefit and revitalize the industry for years. One of these exciting innovations is Probability Proportional to Size (PPS) sampling. I will elaborate on what PPS sampling is and provide a mathematical foundation for its use in polling. I also discuss what some of the myriad of issues plaguing the polling industry are and then show how PPS sampling can be used to remedy many of these ills. Finally, I look at a real-world application of PPS sampling. The Mia Love internal polling team, Y2 Analytics, granted me access to their PPS data. I use it to show that we can accurately model the electorate using PPS samples and that polls conducted by this method are at least as accurate as other polls using simple random samples.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UTAHS/oai:digitalcommons.usu.edu:etd-7926 |
| Date | 01 April 2017 |
| Creators | Burt, Jade McKay |
| Publisher | DigitalCommons@USU |
| Source Sets | Utah State University |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | All Graduate Theses and Dissertations |
| Rights | Copyright for this work is held by the author. Transmission or reproduction of materials protected by copyright beyond that allowed by fair use requires the written permission of the copyright owners. Works not in the public domain cannot be commercially exploited without permission of the copyright owner. Responsibility for any use rests exclusively with the user. For more information contact digitalcommons@usu.edu. |
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