Within the scope of this thesis, a reliability based risk assessment, based on Monte Carlo simulation was used to analyse the safety levels of Esenkö / y Fishery Harbor main breakwater, Sea of Marmara, Turkey. In the past, in reliability-based risk assessment methodology in Turkey, the design conditions were only wave characteristics, tidal range, storm surge, wave set-up and the structural system parameters. However in this study, the tsunami risk which was considered as a major design parameter is included in the computations. In this study, development of a structural stability criterion in coastal engineering was suggested to achieve a common definition of reliability including the tsunami risk. The model introduced in this study is a practical technique in the reliability-based risk assessment of breakwaters subject to tsunami risk. In order to determine the occurrence probability of design condition, which is a function of storm waves, tidal range, storm surge and tsunami height, the Monte Carlo simulation, was applied. From the reliability-based risk assessment model applied to Esenkö / y Fishery Harbor as a pilot study in Turkey it was found that, inclusion of the tsunami risk increases the failure risk of the structure, and as lifetime of the structure increases, the impact of tsunami risk on the failure mechanism is more reflected. For Esenkö / y Fishery Harbor main breakwater, tsunami was not the key design parameter when compared to storm waves. However, in regions with great seismic activity, tsunami risk may be very noteworthy depending on the frequency and the magnitude of the tsunami.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:METU/oai:etd.lib.metu.edu.tr:http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/4/1087832/index.pdf |
| Date | 01 January 2003 |
| Creators | Alimoglu, Murat |
| Contributors | Ergin, Ayse |
| Publisher | METU |
| Source Sets | Middle East Technical Univ. |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | M.S. Thesis |
| Format | text/pdf |
| Rights | To liberate the content for public access |
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