Probability matching is the tendency to predict outcomes in accordance with their actual contingencies in a binary choice task. It is, however, a suboptimal response if the aim is to maximize correct predictions. I review two theories that attempt to explain why probability matching occurs: the pattern-search hypothesis and dual-systems theory. These theories are tested in two studies which suggest that dual-systems theory provides a better account of probability matching behavior. Studies 3, 4, and 5 then provide evidence for an extension of the dual-systems theory, called expectation matching, which is intended to explain why probability matching is the intuitive response to a binary choice problem.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:WATERLOO/oai:uwspace.uwaterloo.ca:10012/6558 |
| Date | January 2012 |
| Creators | James, Greta |
| Source Sets | University of Waterloo Electronic Theses Repository |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis or Dissertation |
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