The aim of this thesis is to examine the dependence of the exchange rate movement on the core fundamentals of the economy in the long term, as well as to test the validity of selected indicators of technical analysis in the short term. The dependence of the exchange rate will be examined using correlation and the discussed fundamentals are the main macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, short-term interest rates and money base M2. In the part, which deals with the technical analysis, I will test the two groups of indicators, namely trend indicators and oscillators. From the first group it will be simple moving average (SMA), Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the weighted moving average (WMA), the triangular moving average (TMA) and MACD. From the group of oscillators I will test the relative strength index (RSI). All these indicators will be first described in the theoretical part of this thesis. The thesis is divided into two parts - theoretical and practical. The theoretical part includes two chapters which deals with the analysis of the Forex market. The first chapter deals with fundamental analysis. The second chapter deals with technical analysis. In the third chapter I will discuss both methods in practice, with emphasis on technical analysis.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:nusl.cz/oai:invenio.nusl.cz:76388 |
| Date | January 2009 |
| Creators | Vlasák, Pavel |
| Contributors | Sedláček, Jiří, Čajka, Radek |
| Publisher | Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze |
| Source Sets | Czech ETDs |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
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