An accurate television viewing choice model is an important tool for television industry executives, as well as advertisers. An efficient model can help television channels maximize ratings by improving both scheduling and the characteristics of their shows. On the other hand advertisers can predict ratings and demographic composition of audiences with better accuracy. Though there is considerable evidence to suggest that individual viewing choices are strongly affected by one's family members, quantitative models in marketing literature typically focus on the individual as the unit of analysis without incorporating the influence of family members. / Key Words: viewing choice modeling, television rating, group decision making / This thesis proposes a three-stage model to capture the process of household television viewing behavior. We divide the household viewing process into three sequential and interrelated decision stages (pre-decision, joint decision, and final-decision) according to the group decision making framework suggested in prior research. By defining utilities of different programme types on different channels, and weighting parameters of each family member, each family member's three decisions (pre-decision, joint decision and post-decision) are modeled as a function of these parameters with three sub-models. The model was estimated with maximum likelihood estimation, duly validated with simulation studies. Meanwhile, the model was extended to be time-dependent to allow past viewing history to influence current viewing choice, and applied on the people meter data for primetime telecasts on weekdays for the whole of 2006. The results indicate that our model has better prediction accuracy compared with models being currently used (Rust and Alpert 1984; Yang et al. 2010). Furthermore, we are able to demonstrate that models that ignore the influence of family members yield biased estimates. Our model also has better prediction accuracy compared with the traditional model proposed by Rust and Alpert (1984), and has more flexibility to fit households with different compositions. Finally, we find that there exist different household decision structures, initial latent preferences, and influences of past viewing history across different families and their members, and the heterogeneity can be explained by demographic variables. / Su, Lei. / "December 2010." / Advisers: Jessica Yuk-yee Kwong; Kin-nam Lau; Jian-min Jia. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 73-04, Section: A, page: . / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2011. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 126-133). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Electronic reproduction. [Ann Arbor, MI] : ProQuest Information and Learning, [201-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, MI : ProQuest dissertations and theses, [201-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstract also in Chinese.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:cuhk.edu.hk/oai:cuhk-dr:cuhk_344737 |
| Date | January 2011 |
| Contributors | Su, Lei, Chinese University of Hong Kong Graduate School. Division of Business Administration. |
| Source Sets | The Chinese University of Hong Kong |
| Language | English, Chinese |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Text, theses |
| Format | electronic resource, microform, microfiche, 1 online resource (xiii, 221 leaves : ill.) |
| Rights | Use of this resource is governed by the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons “Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International” License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) |
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