In the presented paper the changes in mean runoff, temperature and precipitation totals in
an observed period 1962-2015 in the catchment river Hačka are assessed. The paper further
presents the analysis of climate change impact on mean runoff between the periods 1984-2014
(control period) and 2035-2065 and 2068-2098 (scenario periods) using the projections of three
regional climate model simulations. Thin Plate Spline interpolation was used to estimate basin
precipitation and temperature. Modified hydrological analogy was used for precise quantification
of naturalized runoff (i.e. not affected by water use). Climate change scenarios were
derived using simple delta change approach, i.e. observed series of precipitation and temperature
were adjusted in order to give the same changes between the control and scenario period
as regional climate model simulations. Hydrological balance was modelled with a conceptual
hydrological model Bilan. The parameters of the hydrological model were estimated using observed
data. These parameters were subsequently used to derive discharge series under climate
change conditions for each regional climate model simulation. Results showed a 1.7 °C average
increase in mean annual temperature in the scenario period 2035-2065 and a 2.8 °C average
increase in the scenario period 2068-2098. The seasonal cycle of precipitation in the scenario
conditions is shifted, although mean annual precipitation totals remain practically unchanged
(max changes -8.1 %; +9.3 %). The mean annual discharge decreases by 5.7% in average (most
20.3 %) in period 2035-2065 and a significant decrease of 25.5% in average (most 45.9 %) in
annual mean discharge is expected in the period 2068-2098. Frequency of minimal runoff is expected
to increase up to two times. Precipitation increase is expected from the beginning of the
fall to the beginning of the summer, with a slight decrease in spring. Increase in precipitation
is followed by evapotranspiration increase, caused by increase in temperature. Summer precipitation
is expected to decrease as well as summer runoff. Due to the temperature increase, time
shift of the snowmelt is expected from the periods between March-April to January-February.
This will also affect the increase of the discharge in this period. This knowledge can be applied
in water management planning in the future.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:nusl.cz/oai:invenio.nusl.cz:258734 |
| Date | January 2016 |
| Creators | Moravec, Vojtěch |
| Contributors | Hanel, Martin, Ladislav, Ladislav |
| Publisher | Česká zemědělská univerzita v Praze |
| Source Sets | Czech ETDs |
| Language | Czech |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
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