The paper constructs recidivism prediction models for women drug prisoners, using the 10 factors evaluated in "drug recidivism risk assessment form" by correctional institutions and the 18 factors studied in the literature. With the new recidivism prediction model, I hope to help improving the prediction accuracy of women drug prisoners¡¦ recidivism.
The sample in the paper includes 1,029 drug prisoners released from Kaohsiung Women's Prison between 2008 and 2011. All criminal records are traced until the end of 2011. Two sets of potential risk factors of recidivism are considered in the paper. The first set only contains the factors in the evaluation form, and the second set includes all relevant factors. Using Logistic Regression Analysis and Survival Analysis, the effects of potential risk factors on recidivism are examined. I also predict the probability and the time interval of recidivism.
Using the Logistic regression model with the risk factors only in the evaluation form, 58.4% of recidivism can be correctly predicted. While extending the set of potential risk factors, the screening rate of recidivism can be enhanced to 73.3%. The median forecast results are far superior to the average forecast in Survival Analysis. With the potential risk factors in the evaluation form, the difference of predicted recidivism date and the actual date is less than 60 days and less than 180 days in 2.5% and 9.6% of sample respectively. With all relevant risk factors, prediction, the share of sample whose difference of predicted recidivism date and the actual date is less than 60 days and less than 180 days are significantly improved to 10.2% and 27.3% respectively.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:NSYSU/oai:NSYSU:etd-0813112-124256 |
| Date | 13 August 2012 |
| Creators | Yang, Chin-liang |
| Contributors | Yung-nian Tung, Chun-chieh Wang, Cheng-shan Liu |
| Publisher | NSYSU |
| Source Sets | NSYSU Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Archive |
| Language | Cholon |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.lib.nsysu.edu.tw/ETD-db/ETD-search/view_etd?URN=etd-0813112-124256 |
| Rights | user_define, Copyright information available at source archive |
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