, for the life of the storm, perform the best in terms of the distance between forecast and best-track positions. A TAF forecast is developed using a linear combination of the highest weighted predictors. When applied to the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season, the TAF system with a requirement to contain a minimum of three predictors, consistently outperformed, although not statistically significant, the CONU forecast at 72 and 96 hours for a homogeneous data set. At 120 hours, the TAF system significantly decreased the average forecast errors when compared to the CONU. The multi-agent (MAS) system approach opens the door for statistically significant forecast improvement. / US Navy (USN) author.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:nps.edu/oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/1931 |
| Date | 06 1900 |
| Creators | Lear, Matthew R. |
| Contributors | Hiles, John, Naval Postgraduate School |
| Publisher | Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School |
| Source Sets | Naval Postgraduate School |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | xiv, 35 p. : ill. (some col.), maps (some col.) ;, application/pdf |
| Rights | Approved for public release, distribution unlimited |
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