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Trade Balance Dynamics and Exchange Rates: In Search of the J-Curve Using a Structural Gravity Approach

This paper uses a structural gravity approach, specifying currency movements as trade cost component to derive an empirical trade balance model, which incorporates multilateral resistance terms and accounts for the cross-country variation in the exchange rate pass-through into import and export prices. The model is estimated using quarterly bilateral trade flows between 47 countries over the period 2010Q1-2017Q2, disaggregated into 97 commodity groups. Our results support the existence of an "aggregate" J-curve, pooled over commodity groups; at the same time they point to considerable heterogeneity in the trade balance dynamics across industries below the surface of aggregate data. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:VIENNA/oai:epub.wu-wien.ac.at:5971
Date01 1900
CreatorsBadinger, Harald, Fichet de Clairfontaine, Aurélien
PublisherWU Vienna University of Economics and Business
Source SetsWirtschaftsuniversität Wien
LanguageEnglish
Detected LanguageEnglish
TypePaper, NonPeerReviewed
Formatapplication/pdf
Relationhttps://www.wu.ac.at/economics/forschung/wp/, http://epub.wu.ac.at/5971/

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