The performance of an optimal-weighted portfolio strategy is evaluated when transaction costs are penalized compared to an equal-weighted portfolio strategy. The optimal allocation weights are found by maximizing a modified Sharpe ratio measure each trading day, where modified refers to the expected return of an asset in this context. The leverage of the investment is determined by a conditional expectation estimate of the number of portfolio assets of the next-coming day. A moving window is used to historically measure the transition probabilities of moving from one state to another within this stochastic count process and this is used as an input to the estimator. It is found that the most accurate estimate is the actual trading day’s number of portfolio assets and this is obtained when the size of the moving window is one. Increasing the penalty parameter on transaction costs of selling and buying assets between trading days lowers the aggregated transaction cost and increases the performance of the optimal-weighted portfolio considerably. The best portfolio performance is obtained when at least 50% of the capital is invested equally among the assets when maximizing the modified Sharpe ratio. The optimal-weighted and equal-weighted portfolios are constructed on a daily basis, where the allowed VaR0:05 is €300 000 for each portfolio. This sets the limit on the amount of capital allowed to be invested each trading day, and is determined by empirical VaR0:05 simulations of these two portfolios.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:kth-103275 |
| Date | January 2012 |
| Creators | Lorentz, Pär |
| Publisher | KTH, Matematisk statistik |
| Source Sets | DiVA Archive at Upsalla University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Student thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| Relation | TRITA-MAT-E ; 2012:05 |
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