Due to the increased scrutiny of construction costs for infrastructure projects by the
public and legislators, it is becoming increasing important for project developers to prepare
accurate conceptual cost estimates for transportation tunnel projects at the feasibility stage to aid
in making investment decisions. Past studies have emphasized that tunnel-project costs have
been significantly underestimated, and cost uncertainties and risks have been identified as the
cause of cost under or overestimation. A broad understanding of the factors that contribute to
cost underestimation is important as it enables researchers and estimators to develop appropriate
functions, evaluate, and implement them to produce realistic cost estimates.
This study was aimed at developing parametric cost estimation functions and quantifying
their risks for transportation tunnel projects. A comprehensive background study of more than 39
published articles on transportation tunnel infrastructure projects was conducted through a
systematic literature review and 40 key estimating parameters that may impact project costs and
the associated project logistics were identified. Data from completed tunnel projects were
collected and used to develop the parametric cost equations. Exploratory analyses were first
performed to discover the correlations among tunnel costs and tunnel cost parameters/drivers.
The purpose of this effort was to assess if a relationship existed between tunnel variables and
tunnel project cost estimates. Parametric cost estimation functions were then developed for
different tunnel applications. There has been no comprehensive study performed to date to
develop parametric cost estimation functions that incorporated risk and uncertainty for
transportation tunnel projects. Two representative sample case studies were performed and
Monte Carlo simulation was used to quantify the associated risks. The results from the case
studies illustrate the need to use appropriate techniques to simulate tunnel costs and quantify the risks associated with the estimates. The findings of the study provide a methodology to estimate
the costs of transportation tunnels and quantify the uncertainties and risks associated with the
costs. The methodology developed in this research could help reduce the incidence of project
cost underestimation and alleviate some of the controversies surrounding cost overruns in
transportation tunnel projects.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:ndsu.edu/oai:library.ndsu.edu:10365/25908 |
| Date | January 2016 |
| Creators | Membah, Joseph F. J. |
| Publisher | North Dakota State University |
| Source Sets | North Dakota State University |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text/dissertation, movingimage/video |
| Format | video/mp4, application/pdf |
| Rights | NDSU Policy 190.6.2, https://www.ndsu.edu/fileadmin/policy/190.pdf |
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