The study critically analyzes the implication of various agricultural
development policies on urban unemployment and income distribution.
More specifically it focuses on the evaluation of agricultural
policies at the macro-economic Level in the Nigerian economy.
A system science and simulation approach is used to build and
test a ten sector macro-economic model of the Nigerian economy to
investigate the problem. The model simulates consumption, investment, employment and production endogenously. Validation of the
model shows that it is capable of describing the major trends in the
Nigerian economy for recent history.
By interacting with a detailed agricultural sector model, the
macro-model enables evaluation of agricultural policies in the context
of the total economy after taking account of the important interactions
between the agricultural and nonagricultural economies. In particular
the model enables some measures of income distribution and employment
to be included as targets of economic development planning together
with the conventional target of growth.
The model predicts that if current agricultural policies are continued,
urban unemployment and income disparities will become increasingly
more serious in Nigeria. Furthermore, the income differential
between agriculture and nonagriculture is predicted to widen
leading to a continuing increase in the rate of labor migration out of
agriculture.
The evaluation of two sets of agricultural policies, export crop
modernization and food crop modernization, leads to a serious questioning
of the present emphasis among development economists on
agricultural development as a means of steadying the flow of rural-urban
migration and reducing urban unemployment and rural-urban
income inequities. Because of the considerable multiplier effects of
increased agricultural incomes on nonagricultural incomes, both agricultural
policies produced a wider differential between agricultural
and nonagricultural incomes stimulating further labor migration out
of agriculture. This effect was particularly acute in the case of the
food modernization policy where the terms of trade turned against
agriculture.
Nevertheless both sets of policies and particularly the export
modernization policy improved the disparity in self-employed earnings
and wage earnings and produced a steady rise in nonagricultural self-employed
earnings which, under current policies, were predicted to
stagnate because of rising urban unemployment.
Other policies to restrain wages and increase government employment
demonstrated the considerable trade-off between various
groups of the population arising out of the complexity of interactions
between the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors. The macroeconomic
simulation model is suggested as a useful approach to development
planning where there is need to consider interactions between
sectors and trade-offs between targets of development. / Graduation date: 1972
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:ORGSU/oai:ir.library.oregonstate.edu:1957/25971 |
| Date | 13 August 1971 |
| Creators | Byerlee, Derek Ronald |
| Contributors | Halter, A. N. |
| Source Sets | Oregon State University |
| Language | en_US |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis/Dissertation |
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