Factors such as economical development, rapid increase in population and climate change increased electricity demand in Turkey as well as in other countries. Thus, using the correct methods to estimate short, medium and long term electricity demand forms a basis for the countries to develop their energy strategy. In this study, monthly electricity demand of Turkey is estimated. First, the effect of natural gas price and
consumption to electricity demand and elasticities are searched with a simple regression model. Although, natural gas is known as a substitute of electricity, natural
gas consumption and natural gas over electricity price ratio are found to be nearly inelastic. Second part includes two models and cointegration relation is investigated
in nonstationary industry production index, electricity consumption per capita and electricity prices series in the first one. An error correction model is then formed with
an additional average temperature variable and 12 months electricity demand is forecasted. In the second one, heating degree-days and cooling degree-days are used instead of the average temperature variable and a new error correction model is formed. The first model performs better than the second one, indicating the seasonality of electricity consumption during a year. The results of both models are
also compared with previous studies to investigate the effect of different weather variables.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:METU/oai:etd.lib.metu.edu.tr:http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12609318/index.pdf |
| Date | 01 February 2008 |
| Creators | Kucukbahar, Duygu |
| Contributors | Koksal, Gulser |
| Publisher | METU |
| Source Sets | Middle East Technical Univ. |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | M.S. Thesis |
| Format | text/pdf |
| Rights | To liberate the content for public access |
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