Dissertation (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The dissertation firstly outlines the findings of recent studies that have recorded the relationship
between transport and economic development. This includes the assessment of a number of
economic evaluation techniques that are available to predict the impact of improvements in
transport on economic development.
An historic overview is provided of the role that transport has played in the development of Cape
Town. Due to the fact that the phases of development followed international development trends, it
is concluded that development in Cape Town will follow the global trend. A number of economic
growth scenarios are developed for Cape Town to assess how the City will be able to cope with the
socio-demographic challenges facing it in the next century.
The relationship between land price and the economic development potential of land is outlined, as
are the factors that determine industrial land price, namely the demand and supply of industrial
land. The process of determining the economic value of industrial land is described. This includes
the collection and analysis of occupation rent of industrial townships in Cape Town, the calculation
of property values and the calculation of the shadow price of land.
A procedure of determining accessibility to industrial townships in Cape Town was developed.
Firstly, accessibility was defined in broad terms. This was followed by a discussion of each of the
elements of accessibility namely proximity, access and mobility in order to understand the factors
that may impact on the level of accessibility. Finally, the level of accessibility is quantified in terms
of generalised cost.
A regression analysis was undertaken to establish a statistical relationship between the economic
value of industrial land and accessibility to the industrial townships. The development of a
numerical model was based on the regression analyses to forecast changes in industrial land price
given a change in accessibility. The model was then tested on a case study.
The main conclusions of the study are as follows:
(a) The accessibility of industrial land in Cape Town is linked closely to its CSD I Port (it was
not possible to separate the CSD and the port), which is typical of a monocentric city
structure.
(b) There is a positive, significant, quantifiable relationship between accessibility as quantified
by means of generalised cost and the economic value of industrial land, which was
calculated by means of the shadow price technique.
(c) There are a number of conditions that should be met for an increase in local industrial
production potential to be translated into an equal amount of economic output. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die proefskrif som eerstens die bevindings van onlangse studies op wat die verwantskap tussen
vervoer en ekonomiese ontwikkeling dokumenteer. Dit sluit die taksering van 'n aantal
ekonomiese evaluasietegnieke in wat beskikbaar is om die impak van vervoer op ekonomiese
ontwikkeling te voorspel.
'n Historiese oorsig word verskaf van die rol wat vervoer gespeel het in die ontwikkeling van
Kaapstad. As gevolg van die feit dat die fases van ontwikkeling in die verlede internasionale
ontwikkelingstendense gevolg het, word tot die gevolgtrekking gekom dat Kaapstad die
globalisasie markera, wat tans internasionaal gestalte kry, sal navolg. 'n Aantal ekonomiese
groeiscenarios word vir Kaapstad ontwikkel ten einde te bepaal hoe die stad die sosiodemografiese
uitdagings van die volgende eeu sal hanteer.
Die verwantskap tussen grondprys en die ekonomiese ontwikkelingspotensiaal van grond word
omskryf, asook die faktore wat industriële grondprys bepaal. Die proses van die bepaling van die
ekonomiese waarde van industriële grond word beskryf. Dit sluit die insamel en analise van
besettingshuurdata van industriële dorpsgebiede, die berekening van eiendomswaarde en die
berekening van die skaduprys van grond in.
'n Prosedure is ontwikkel vir die berekening van die toeganklikheid van industriële dorpsgebiede in
Kaapstad. Eerstens is toeganklikheid in breë trekke gedefinieër. Dit is gevolg deur 'n bespreking
van elk van die elemente van toeganklikheid, naamlik nabyheid, aansluiting en mobiliteit ten einde
die faktore wat op die vlak van toeganklikheid mag impakteer te verstaan. Laastens is die vlak van
toeganklikheid gekwantifiseer in terme van veralgemeende vervoerkoste.
'n Regressie-analise is onderneem ten einde die statistiese verwantskap tussen die ekonomiese
waarde van industriële grond en toeganklikheid na industriële dorpsgebiede te bepaal. Die
ontwikkeling van 'n numeriese model is op die regressie-analise gebaseer ten einde veranderinge
in industriële grondpryse te voorspel, gegewe 'n verandering in toeganklikheid. Die model is op 'n
gevallestudie toegepas.
Die vernaamste gevolgtrekkings van die studie is :
(a) Die toeganklikheid van industriële grond in Kaapstad is nou gekoppel aan die sentrale
sakekern I hawe (dit was nie moontlik om die sentrale sakekern en hawe te skei nie), wat
tipies is van n monosentriese staduitleg.
(b) Daar is n noemenswaardige positiewe kwantifiseerbare verwantskap tussen
toeganklikheid, soos gekwantifiseer in terme van veralgemeende koste, en die ekonomiese
waarde van industriële grond wat deur middel van die skaduprystegniek bereken is.
(c) Daar is 'n aantal voorwaardes waaraan voldoen moet word alvorens 'n toename in
plaaslike industriële produksiepotensiaal tot 'n soortgelyke toename in ekonomiese
ontwikelingspotensiaal sal lei.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/53250 |
| Date | January 2003 |
| Creators | Botes, Francois Jacobus |
| Contributors | Pienaar, W. J., Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Logistics. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | Unknown |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | 1 v. (various pagings) : maps |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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