This dissertation explores the role of public opinion in U.S. presidential decisions
to employ various alternatives in response to an international crisis. Presidents may
choose from a range of force alternatives, including non-force alternatives, troop
mobilizations, air strikes or ground assaults. Using the Poliheuristic Theory, I argue that
public attitudes toward the use of force in a given crisis play a key role in the decision
making process leading to such choices. The direction and intensity of public opinion is
driven by a relative value assessment by which the public determines whether the
benefits of a use of force are worth the costs. Presidents are aware of this relative value
assessment and rule out crisis responses that are likely to violate the public's preferences
in the first stage of the decision making process. In the second stage, presidents choose
among the remaining alternatives by weighing the relative merits of each with respect to
military and international-strategic implications.
To test hypotheses following from this theoretical argument, I employ two
methodological approaches. The first is statistical analysis. I develop a new data set of
presidential crisis response choices and expand an existing data set on U.S. public
attitudes toward the use of force, from 1949 to 2001. Using two extant data collections
identifying international crises, I conduct Ordered Logit analyses, which produce results
that are largely supportive of the hypotheses. The second methodological approach is the case study method. I conduct two detailed case studies of decisions to use force in
Bosnia (1995) and Afghanistan (2001). These analyses are also supportive of the
theoretical argument. I conclude that presidents are largely responsive to public opinion
in the selection of crisis responses.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:tamu.edu/oai:repository.tamu.edu:1969.1/4408 |
| Date | 30 October 2006 |
| Creators | Brule, David J |
| Contributors | Mintz, Alex |
| Publisher | Texas A&M University |
| Source Sets | Texas A and M University |
| Language | en_US |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Book, Thesis, Electronic Dissertation, text |
| Format | 789258 bytes, electronic, application/pdf, born digital |
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