A spatial hedonic model was constructed for a lakefront golf course community in South Carolina. Geographic information system (GIS) analysis classified 589 vacant lots into eight different view categories including golf course, mountain, and lake views. The OLS results confirm a hierarchy in the pricing of views with premiums ranging from 42% to 54% for golf course views, 94% to 133% for lake views, and 131 %to 305% for lakefront lots. Spatial variables including the slope of a lot, length of shoreline, and proximity to the lakeside village were also found to be statistically significant variables influencing the value of the property. Other spatial variables were found to be statistically insignificant including view aspect and length of golf course frontage. Tests for spatial autocorrelation were conducted for the 589 properties utilizing spatial lag and spatial error models. Both spatial models were statistically superior compared to the original OLS model. The diagnostic tools indicate that the modeling of the spatial errors using a maximum likelihood framework produces a statistically significant model that improves goodness-of-fit indicators compared to an alternative spatial lag model. These results confirm the importance of modeling spatial errors. The period of study, from 2000 to 2010, was a decade of turbulence in the real estate market on Lake Keowee. The empirical evidence indicates the emergence of a speculative bubble that reached its crescendo in 2005/2006 with median real estate prices doubling in a five year period. This study examines the role of launch marketing tactics as a price amplifier by creating an urgency to buy in response to a systematic increase in property prices and simultaneously limiting supply by restricting lot sales to 30% of reservations. Finally, the study illustrates that the construction of golf courses is no panacea to the problems confronting today's residential real estate developers. The results suggest that communities based on waterfront properties may have greater potential price growth in strong markets and resiliency in weak markets. Further research is warranted to understand the changing role of golf courses in the 21st century.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:bl.uk/oai:ethos.bl.uk:553851 |
| Date | January 2011 |
| Creators | Wyman, David |
| Publisher | University of Aberdeen |
| Source Sets | Ethos UK |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Electronic Thesis or Dissertation |
| Source | http://digitool.abdn.ac.uk:80/webclient/DeliveryManager?pid=174682 |
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