Yes / Amid much recent interest we discuss a Variance Gamma model for Rugby Union matches
(applications to other sports are possible). Our model emerges as a special case of the recently
introduced Gamma Difference distribution though there is a rich history of applied work using
the Variance Gamma distribution – particularly in finance. Restricting to this special case
adds analytical tractability and computational ease. Our three-dimensional model extends
classical two-dimensional Poisson models for soccer. Analytical results are obtained for match
outcomes, total score and the awarding of bonus points. Model calibration is demonstrated
using historical results, bookmakers’ data and tournament simulations.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:BRADFORD/oai:bradscholars.brad.ac.uk:10454/17767 |
| Date | 02 April 2020 |
| Creators | Fry, John, Smart, O., Serbera, J-P., Klar, B. |
| Source Sets | Bradford Scholars |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Article, Accepted manuscript |
| Rights | (c) 2021 BE Press. Full-text reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
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