Balancing water demand and supply in South Africa involves high levels of uncertainty. The Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS) is responsible for making decisions to either increase water supply or decrease water demand so as to ensure that sufficient water is available, when and where it is needed. However, no retrospective analyses of such decisions have been found. One way to assess such decisions is to evaluate the associated costs and benefits thereof. Therefore the primary aim of this study is to evaluate the costs and benefits of selected water supply options, and of the decision-making associated with those options. In order to achieve this purpose, four case studies were analysed within a mixed-methods research paradigm, which used both quantitative and qualitative methods, including unit reference value (URV) analysis, inter- and intra-case analysis and content analysis to examine the success of the decisions made. The four case studies were conducted on the Inyaka, Nandoni, Berg and De Hoop dams and their catchments. Firstly, estimated and actual project costs were compared using unit reference analysis and inter-case analyses. Secondly, the reduction of mean annual runoff (MAR) caused by invasive alien plants (IAPs) and the cost of clearing them in the dam catchments were evaluated using inter-case analyses. Information thus gathered was used together with data from DWS documentation and the results of interviews with ten key specialists, to analyse the decision-making process that led to the decision to build De Hoop Dam (the most recent case study). The rational decision-making model (RDMM) was used as a framework within which to analyse and evaluate this decision-making process. This study has also demonstrated how the RDMM can be used to assess decision-making associated with water supply development. The results of this study show that there is considerable variation of estimated costs (at the time that the decision to build the dam was taken) in relation to the actual costs of building the dams and that Ministers were not put in a position to understand the full long-term costs or the opportunity costs of the proposed dams. Furthermore, the most recent IAP data (2008) shows that the impact on water security by IAPs could not offset the water security resulting from building each of the four dams. However, if IAP management is not continued in these catchments, the projected reduction of MAR by IAPs will compromise water security within 45 years. Given the almost exponential spread and densification of IAPs, together with their long-term impact on MAR and increased costs of controlling them, it is clear that IAP management should have been factored into water supply decision-making from the outset. In the analysis of the decision to build the De Hoop Dam, the results show that while the decision-making process that culminated in the decision to build the dam did not follow the steps of the RDMM, DWS appears to have followed a somewhat similar approach. It was found that while there was a need for the provision of additional water in the Olifants catchment, this need was overstated and the resulting overestimation caused the scale and size of the dam to be larger than it could and probably should have been. Additionally, it appears that DWS‘s decision to build the De Hoop Dam themselves, rather than having it built by the private sector, may have been less than optimal. It is recommended that, in future decision-making, DWS needs to incorporate multiple alternative options into the same solution, and to ensure that decision-makers are put into a position to make informed decisions, including adequate consideration of externalities. Furthermore, DWS needs to employ decision-making models such as the RDMM to facilitate retrospective analyses to improve their institutional knowledge. Keywords: water resources management, dams, invasive alien plants, decision-making, unit reference values, rational decision-making model.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:rhodes/vital:1210 |
| Date | January 2016 |
| Creators | Preston, Ian Robert |
| Publisher | Rhodes University, Faculty of Commerce, Management |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis, Masters, MCom |
| Format | 256 leaves, pdf |
| Rights | Preston, Ian Robert |
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