This thesis identifies the potential threats and impacts posed by climate change on the relationship between water availability and the Polish energy transformation sector. In doing so, the objective is to uncover and assess how vulnerable these components are to climate change. Poland provides an interesting case in a European context as the country’s energy sector is largely fueled by hard coal, and its established thermal power plant fleet requires large volumes of water at particular temperatures to operate at full capacity (Kosowski et al. 2019). Climate change is predicted to cause variations in temperature and precipitation which is likely to affect water availability (Schaeffer et al. 2012). This is set to place further strain on the relationship betweenwater and thermal power plant operation. In addition, Poland has some of the smallest freshwater resources available per capita in the European Union and the country has already witnessed an increase in droughts and heatwaves which have had negative impacts on electricity generation (Manowska & Rybak 2018; Olszewski2015). The concern for Poland then is that climate change threatens the energy transformation sectors’ ability to provide access to electricity by continuing to affect water availability. To investigate this, the study conducted a vulnerability assessment that aimed to identify climate change exposure through the analysis of different climate models. A content analysis of relevant literature was used to identify potential climate change threats. To place the assessment in the Polish context, a case study was conducted on 14 hard coal thermal power plants located throughout the country. The data gathered from the case study was then evaluated and discussed in relation to the conceptual framework. The results found that climate change is indeed causing higher airtemperatures which is likely to cause higher water temperatures as well as more extreme weather events. These trends are expected to continue well beyond 2050. Regarding water availability, it was more challenging to identify a significant change in precipitation trends but periods of intense rainfall and increases in mean watertemperatures were observed. The thesis concluded that it is difficult to predict the exact degree of vulnerability of water availability and thermoelectric power operation. It does however recognize that there is a clear relationship between water availability and the functioning of thermal power plants. Therefore, it can be said that climate change will, to a certain extent, expose the two components to further vulnerabilities. Yet, further in-depth research is required to improve the reliability of the results.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:uu-445133 |
| Date | January 2021 |
| Creators | Lundholm, Diana |
| Publisher | Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för geovetenskaper |
| Source Sets | DiVA Archive at Upsalla University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Student thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| Relation | Examensarbete vid Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 1650-6553 ; 2021/26 |
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