Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Water-borne infections have been a menace in many countries around the globe, claiming
millions of lives. Cholera in particular has spread to all continents and now on its seventh
epidemic. Although control measures have been continually developed through sanitation,
vaccination and rehydration, the infection still devastates populations whenever there is an
outbreak. In this research work, mathematical models for cholera transmission dynamics
with focus on the impact of sanitation and hygiene, metapopulation spread, optimal control
and biological control using a bacteriophage specific for pathogenic Vibrio cholerae are
constructed and analysed. Vital analyses for the models are precisely given as well as numerical
results depicting long term behaviour and the evolution of populations over time.
The results of our analysis indicate that; improved sanitation and hand-hygiene are vital in
reducing cholera infections; the spread of disease across metapopulations characterised by
exchange of individuals and no cross community infection is associated with synchronous
fluctuation of populations in both adjacent communities; during control of cholera, the control
measures/efforts ought to be optimal especially at the beginning of the epidemic where
the outbreak is often explosive in nature; and biological control if well implemented would
avert many potential infections by lowering the concentration of pathogenic vibrios in the
aquatic environment to values lower than the infectious dose. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Water-infeksies is ’n bedreiging in baie lande regoor die wêreld en eis miljoene lewens.
Cholera in die besonder, het op sy sewende epidemie na alle kontinente versprei. Hoewel
beheermaatreëls voortdurend ontwikkel word deur middel van higiëne, inentings en rehidrasie,
vernietig die infeksie steeds bevolkings wanneer daar ’n uitbraak voorkom. In
hierdie navorsingswerk, word wiskundige modelle vir cholera-oordrag dinamika met die
fokus op die impak van higiëne, metabevolking verspreiding, optimale beheer en biologiese
beheer met behulp van ’n bakteriofaag spesifiek vir patogene Vibrio cholerae gebou en
ontleed. Noodsaaklike ontledings vir die modelle is gegee sowel as numeriese resultate wat
die langtermyn gedrag uitbeeld en die ontwikkeling van die bevolking oor tyd. Die resultate
van ons ontleding dui daarop dat; verbeterde higiëne is noodsaaklik in die vermindering
van cholera infeksies; die verspreiding van die siekte oor metapopulaties gekenmerk deur
die uitruil van individue en geen kruis gemeenskap infeksie wat verband houmet sinchrone
skommeling van bevolkings in beide aangrensende gemeenskappe; tydens die beheer van
cholera,behoort die beheermaatreëls/pogings optimaal te wees veral aan die begin van die
epidemie waar die uitbreking dikwels plofbaar in die natuur is; en biologiese beheer, indien
dit goed geïmplementeer word, kan baie potensiële infeksies voorkom deur ’n vermindering
in die konsentrasie van patogene vibrio in die water tot waardes laer as die aansteeklike
dosis.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/95972 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Njagarah, Hatson John Boscoh |
| Contributors | Nyabadza, Farai, Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Science. Department of Mathematical Sciences. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | xii, 129 p. : ill. |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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