This paper is based on the viewpoint of the intertemporal substitution of the consumption smoothing. In order to reflection the tendency of economic liberation and the increasing degree of globally regional economic integration, we modify the traditional single-country VAR model which is based on the single country¡¦s economic variable themselves to a cross-country VAR model which is considering international affecting effect.
We take one of the most famous region in the world---NATFA¡]North America Free Trade Agreement¡^for example, to investing the Granger causalities between current account and national cash flows within each country, to see if international macroeconomic policy cooperation in the region is necessary or not.
In this study, we use six kinds of test which are introduced by Diebold and Mariano¡]1995¡^ to compare which estimation model has better explaining power to forcast the actual current account. Empirical results show that the cross-country VAR estimation model does provide a better estimation about the dynamic performance of current accounts for Canada, US and Mexico. It implies that one¡¦s current account is not only affected by her own economic variable, but also others. We conclude that one country should consider the other countries¡¦ economic performance when making macroeconomic and international trade policies.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:NSYSU/oai:NSYSU:etd-0117107-205539 |
| Date | 17 January 2007 |
| Creators | Tsai, Pae-Chu |
| Contributors | Chingnun Lee, Ming-Jang Weng, Yung-Hsiang Ying |
| Publisher | NSYSU |
| Source Sets | NSYSU Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Archive |
| Language | Cholon |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.lib.nsysu.edu.tw/ETD-db/ETD-search/view_etd?URN=etd-0117107-205539 |
| Rights | unrestricted, Copyright information available at source archive |
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