The potential impact of trade on the economy of Lesotho was assessed using the Lesotho
Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) 2000 as a data base to construct a Computable General
Equilibrium (CGE) model, to design trade policy scenarios, and to simulate the impact of
trade policy scenarios on the Lesotho economy
Since the Lesotho SAM was unbalanced, it was necessary to balance the initial matrix,
using the cross-entropy optimization procedure with the aid of GAMS software.
Four simulation sets were carried out. Results from two sets (duty-free access (DFA) and
a +10% increase in world prices) indicate significantly increased textile exports and
decreased prices for imported commodities. DFA will also be associated with increased
textile imports, while a +10% increase in world prices will lead to increased crop imports.
Demand and supply prices of textile commodities produced and sold domestically will
decrease, as will composite goods prices in the textile sector. Average output price of
textiles will decrease with DFA and with a 10% increase in world prices; the aggregated
marketed commodity quantity for textiles will increase. Output prices of fruit and vegetable processing and intermediate aggregate inputs for the
textile sector decrease with DFA. An increase of 10% in world prices will lead to
increased water service prices. The textile sector will experience increased value added
prices in both scenarios. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the textile sector will increase
significantly.
Lesotho will gain in welfare, measured in terms of equivalent variation (EV). Effects on
labour categories depend on changes in productive activities. In the textile sector, labour
demand, labour income, and capital income will increase significantly. Lesothoâs net
commodity exports and gross government expenditure will also increase.
Erosion of existing preferential access (EEP) and common external tariffs for non-SACU
member states (CET) will reduce the quantity of textile products exported; with EEP, the
price of imported textiles will increase and the quantity decrease. CET will have similar
effects on the skins and hides sector. Demand and supply prices of textile commodities
produced and sold domestically (with EEP) and pharmaceutical products (with CET) will
increase. Prices of composite textile goods will increase slightly. Average output price for
textiles at EEP and pharmaceutical products at CET will increase, and the aggregated
marketed commodity quantity for the textile sector will decrease in both scenarios.
With EEP, prices of output and intermediate aggregate outputs of textiles and micro
industry outputs will increase. CET effects will be smaller. The textile sector at EEP and
accommodation-catering services at CET will experience decreased prices of value
added. Gross domestic product (GDP) of the textile sector will decrease. Welfare or
equivalent variation (EV) will decline. Employment in the textile sector will decline with
a concomitantly small decrease in labour and capital income.
The EEP regime will lead to decreased total government consumption expenditure, while
CET will cause a slight increase; this translates into decreased net commodity imports.
Effects vary among economic sectors. Performance in U.S. markets indicates that Lesothoâs textile exporters have been
competitive under MFA/ AGOA arrangements. This competitiveness can, however, be
jeopardized by lower costs in some Asian countries. The policy makers should develop
permanent comparative advantage to avoid the risk of losses when temporary tariff
preferences are discontinued.
Lesothoâs export trade is highly concentrated, both in terms of products (textiles) and
markets. Diversification of products and markets is prerequisite for avoiding failure and
for sustainable development of the country; considerable manufacturing potential for
export diversification exists in furniture, bricks, sandstone and ceramics, wool and
mohair products, pharmaceutical products, and the recently revitalised diamond industry.
Export trade development and market penetration to non-US destinations should receive
attention.
In this process, the government should strengthen the capacity of the private sector to
deal effectively with rapid change and growing competition by means of, for example,
knowledge dissemination, technological transfers, and negotiations for improved market
access for textile and other potential export products.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:ufs/oai:etd.uovs.ac.za:etd-01252008-104618 |
| Date | 25 January 2008 |
| Creators | Bahta, Yonas Tesfamariam |
| Contributors | Prof HD van Schalkwyk, Prof JA Groenewald |
| Publisher | University of the Free State |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en-uk |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.uovs.ac.za//theses/available/etd-01252008-104618/restricted/ |
| Rights | unrestricted, I hereby certify that, if appropriate, I have obtained and attached hereto a written permission statement from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis, dissertation, or project report, allowing distribution as specified below. I certify that the version I submitted is the same as that approved by my advisory committee. I hereby grant to University Free State or its agents the non-exclusive license to archive and make accessible, under the conditions specified below, my thesis, dissertation, or project report in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter known. I retain all other ownership rights to the copyright of the thesis, dissertation or project report. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis, dissertation, or project report. |
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