During the last century, human life and the quality of living have been impacted
significantly through continuous developments in science and technology. Man has
evolved himself from a hunter and gatherer to the modern man whose lives are enriched
with products that relate to information and communication technology, biotechnology
and info-space technology. The domestication of biotechnology may dominate our lives
during the next fifty years at least as much as the domestication of computers has
dominated our lives during the previous fifty years.
The advent of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) has brought rapid change to world
agricultural production and trade. Evidence shows that Genetically Modified (GM) crops
can have a yield advantage over conventional crops. Currently 46% of the total area
utilised in maize production in South Africa is planted with GM maize.
South Africaâs main trading partners in maize have differing GMO regimes, and many of
them may well change their current stances and regulations as the international conventions and agreements on GMOs further evolve. Over and above this regulatory
framework, consumer attitudes to GM foods are also changing.
The objective of the study is to calculate and quantify the potential impacts of GM maize
on the South African maize trade, by applying the GTAP model. This will provide
scientific input to South African policy makers on GM maize related regulations in the
domestic market, as well as on their stances in the international conventions. The GTAP
model is generally accepted by trade researchers as the most suitable tool to analyse the
impact of trade policy decisions on trade flows and national welfare on a global level due
to its regional and sectoral coverage as well as its theoretical compliance.
The results suggest that the South African policy to allow the domestic production of
approved GM maize events was to the benefit of the country. Policy measures that will
restrict the countryâs access to new GM maize events will gradually disadvantage both
the domestic producers and consumers of maize. The consumers will suffer a decrease in
total welfare whilst the producers will be disadvantaged in terms of imported
competition. For this reason, commodity clearance before general release should be the
exception rather than the rule.
In terms of future studies on this issue to further refine the results of this study specific
effort should be afforded to improve the changes made to disaggregate the maize sector
from other grain sectors, nationally and internationally, in the GTAP model. In addition,
it is recommended that trade flows between countries as included in the GTAP model
should be scrutinised in detail to check for the correctness of actual flows. This would
entail a proper evaluation of the base data of the GTAP model specific to countries
playing a relatively smaller role in the international trade of agricultural products.
Neglecting to do the aforementioned could result in incorrect policy recommendations.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:ufs/oai:etd.uovs.ac.za:etd-06242008-095648 |
| Date | 24 June 2008 |
| Creators | van Wyk, Marcel |
| Contributors | Dr CF le Clus, Prof A Jooste |
| Publisher | University of the Free State |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en-uk |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.uovs.ac.za//theses/available/etd-06242008-095648/restricted/ |
| Rights | unrestricted, I hereby certify that, if appropriate, I have obtained and attached hereto a written permission statement from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis, dissertation, or project report, allowing distribution as specified below. I certify that the version I submitted is the same as that approved by my advisory committee. I hereby grant to University Free State or its agents the non-exclusive license to archive and make accessible, under the conditions specified below, my thesis, dissertation, or project report in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter known. I retain all other ownership rights to the copyright of the thesis, dissertation or project report. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis, dissertation, or project report. |
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