This study focuses mainly on the economic impact of maize-based ethanol production on the
South African animal feed industry. Over the past few years the world has witnessed substantial
developments in the global production and the production capacity of ethanol. Bio-fuels are
becoming an increasingly important source of energy globally. This tremendous industry growth is
mainly driven by: increased energy and more specifically petroleum prices, the reliability of
traditional crude oil exporters along with political motives, adverse pollution effects (methyl tertiary
butyl ether â MTBE) and more specifically emission gases from fossil fuels leading to
environmental pressure for the use of cleaner burning fuels.
Together with this growth, various researchers locally and globally have focused on ethanol
production, but little work has been done on the economic impact that ethanol production will
have on the animal feed industry. These impacts include substitution of the raw materials of
animal feed, the price sensitivity of raw material prices (equilibrium prices), changes in feed costs
and the consumption of distillerâs dried grains with solubles (DDGS) by different animal species.
In order to simulate the results, the two main scenarios were analysed using three different
models, namely the BFAP model, the APR model and the Nieuwoudt/McGuigan model. By
applying the BFAP model to these scenarios, the equilibrium prices of animal-feed raw materials
were simulated for the year 2015. The other two models were then applied to these prices in
order to evaluate the impact of ethanol production on the animal feed industry.
Two main scenarios is constructed with 8 combinations, the main variables in the scenarios is the
oil price and the blending ratios. The results revealed that there is no significant effect on the animal feed industry. Various raw
materials are affected, but only by small percentages. The only raw material that shows any
significant change is lucerne with a 20% decrease in consumption. A few species were dominant
consumers of DDGS, namely broilers, pigs and dairy cattle. In terms of the animal feed costs,
there was only a 2% decrease with the introduction of ethanol production. The introduction of
ethanol production resulted in various price reactions, including an increase in the price of yellow
maize and a decrease in the prices of various oilcake raw materials. Under a scenario of high
blending ratios and oil prices the yellow maize price increases with R169/ton and the soya oilcake
price decreases with R347/ton.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:ufs/oai:etd.uovs.ac.za:etd-02222010-140629 |
| Date | 22 February 2010 |
| Creators | Strydom, Dirk B |
| Contributors | Dr F Meyer, Prof BJ Willemse, Dr PR Taljaard |
| Publisher | University of the Free State |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en-uk |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.uovs.ac.za//theses/available/etd-02222010-140629/restricted/ |
| Rights | unrestricted, I hereby certify that, if appropriate, I have obtained and attached hereto a written permission statement from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis, dissertation, or project report, allowing distribution as specified below. I certify that the version I submitted is the same as that approved by my advisory committee. I hereby grant to University Free State or its agents the non-exclusive license to archive and make accessible, under the conditions specified below, my thesis, dissertation, or project report in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter known. I retain all other ownership rights to the copyright of the thesis, dissertation or project report. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis, dissertation, or project report. |
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