Petrochemicals industry is one of the major industries in modern economy. Almost all synthetic chemicals or materials are related. Ethylene is the main product of this industry, which is produced from naphtha cracker. Butadiene is a by-product of naphtha cracking, but it is the most important raw material of synthetic rubbers.
Most synthetic rubber plants do not have their own butadiene plant. All the materials were supplied from up-stream crackers. Due to the unstable supply and price surge recently, the cost of butadiene is higher than 70% of the total production cost in synthetic rubbers manufacturing. Huge price fluctuation in butadiene caused a big financial loss in 2008. These economic situations have made the price prediction an important issue for synthetic rubber manufacturers.
In this research, we reviewed the historical price data of crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, propylene, butadiene and MTBE from the upper stream of petrochemicals in supply and the price of nature rubber, synthetic rubbers in demand. This study intends to find the petrochemicals price variation factors and uses butadiene as example. ¡§Time series¡¨ and OLS methods are used to build price prediction models to explain the price fluctuation in the past. Our research has found that the monthly price of butadiene is highly related to last month¡¦s price of butadiene, crude oil price and even related to last 9 month butadiene price. This may be because of the regular economical circulation and naphtha crackers annual turn around. The price of spot trading is related to the last week¡¦s price of butadiene and its co-product propylene. Those findings are valuable for synthetic rubber manufacturer in raw material procurement.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:NSYSU/oai:NSYSU:etd-0617109-173517 |
| Date | 17 June 2009 |
| Creators | Chiu, Ruey-lin |
| Contributors | Hsu Shou Te, Liang Ting Peng, Huang Ming Shin |
| Publisher | NSYSU |
| Source Sets | NSYSU Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Archive |
| Language | Cholon |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.lib.nsysu.edu.tw/ETD-db/ETD-search/view_etd?URN=etd-0617109-173517 |
| Rights | campus_withheld, Copyright information available at source archive |
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