Design of engineering projects involve a certain
amount of uncertainty. How should design decisions be
taken in face of the uncertainty? What is the most efficient
way of handling the data?
Decision theory can provide useful answers to these
questions. The literature review shows that decision theory
is a fairly well developed decision method, with almost no
application in hydrology. The steps of decision theoretic
analysis are given. They are augmented by the concept of
expected expected opportunity loss, which is developed as a
means of measuring the expected value of additional data before
they are received. The method is applied to the design
of bridge piers and flood levees for Rillito Creek, Pima
County, Arizona. Uncertainty in both the mean and the variance
of the logarithms of the peak flows of Rillito Creek is
taken into account.
Also shown are decision theoretic methods for: 1)
handling secondary data, such as obtained from a regression
relation, 2) evaluating the effect of the use of non -
sufficient statistics, 3) considering alternate models and
4) regionalizing data.It is concluded that decision theory provides a
rational structure for making design decisions and for the
associated data collection and handling problems.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:arizona.edu/oai:arizona.openrepository.com:10150/617654 |
| Date | 05 1900 |
| Creators | Davis, Donald Ross |
| Contributors | Department of Hydrology & Water Resources, The University of Arizona |
| Publisher | Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ) |
| Source Sets | University of Arizona |
| Language | en_US |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text, Technical Report |
| Source | Provided by the Department of Hydrology and Water Resources. |
| Rights | Copyright © Arizona Board of Regents |
| Relation | Technical Reports on Hydrology and Water Resources, No. 2 |
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