To obtain more complete mortality data following HIV and AIDS diagnosis in Australia, HIV/AIDS diagnoses between 1980 and 2003 were linked to the National Death Index. Based on 6900 known deaths, and 1455 known non-deaths, sensitivity and specificity of the linkage was estimated to be 82% and 92% respectively. Mortality rates were compared by calendar period, pre-ART (<1990), pre- and early-HAART (1990-1996) and late-HAART (1997-2003). Mortality following AIDS decreased from 590.2/1000 person years pre-ART to 77.4 during the late-HAART period. Mortality following HIV diagnosis prior to AIDS increased from 9.7 to 20.2/1000 person years. The total number living with diagnosed HIV infection in Australia was estimated to have increased from 7873 at the end of 1989 to 12828 in 2003. Risk factors for survival following HIV and AIDS diagnosis were assessed using Cox regression. Age >40 years and certain HIV exposure results were associated with poorer survival following HIV. Predictors of poorer survival following AIDS were age >40 years, females exposed to HIV through receipt of blood, CD4 count <20 and certain AIDS illnesses. Parametric models of survival following HIV and AIDS diagnosis were assessed using likelihood based criteria. Goodness of fit was assessed by comparing observed with model predicted numbers of deaths. Weibull models were found to fit best to both survival following HIV and AIDS. Parametric survival models were used to project deaths after HIV and AIDS across three scenarios of HAART usage. Deaths following HIV were projected to remain low, but to increase from 223 in 2005 to 288, 292 and 282 in 2010 if the HAART usage remains stable at 2005 levels, increases to 70% of all people with diagnosed HIV by 2010 and decreases to 39% of all people with diagnosed HIV respectively. Deaths after AIDS diagnosis were projected to increase unless if HAART usage increases to 100% of AIDS diagnoses by 2010.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:ADTP/257472 |
| Date | January 2007 |
| Creators | Nakhaee, Fatemeh, Public Health & Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, UNSW |
| Source Sets | Australiasian Digital Theses Program |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Rights | http://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/copyright, http://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/copyright |
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