The thesis is based on the use of mathematical theories and techniques to gain qualitative and quantitative insight into the transmission dynamics of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in an IDU (injecting drug user) population. A deterministic model, which stratifies the IDU population into eight mutually-exclusive compartments (based on epidemiological status), is considered. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model establishes, for the first time, the presence of the phenomenon of backward bifurcation in HCV transmission dynamics. Three routes (or causes) to such a dynamic phenomenon have been established. Furthermore, five main parameters that play a dominant role on the transmission dynamics of the disease have been identified. Numerical simulations of the model show that the re-infection of recovered individuals has marginal effect on the HCV burden (as measured in terms of the cumulative incidence and prevalence of the disease) in the IDU community.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:MANITOBA/oai:mspace.lib.umanitoba.ca:1993/23821 |
| Date | 19 August 2014 |
| Creators | Nazari, Fereshteh |
| Contributors | Gumel, Abba (Mathematics), Kinsner, Witold (Electrical & Computer Engineering) Shamseddine, Khodr (Mathematics) |
| Source Sets | University of Manitoba Canada |
| Detected Language | English |
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