This dissertation consists of three manuscripts analyzing labor market dynamics in West Virginia and the Appalachian Region. The first manuscript examines the dynamic effects of national, regional, and local labor market shocks on labor force participation rates in Appalachia. A dynamic factor model with time-varying loading parameters and stochastic volatility is used to explore the synchronicity and divergence between state labor force participation rates within and outside the Appalachian region. We find that the choice of time and state is crucial to the relative importance of the level of synchronization on observed change in LFPR variations. Our findings can help better target labor policy by taking advantage of the sensitivity exhibited by each state to various labor market conditions.
The second manuscript examines the dynamic effects of state, Metro/Non-Metro, and county labor market shocks on labor force participation rates in West Virginia. In the first stage, using a dynamic factor model, we find that non-metropolitan and county-specific components are dominant contributors to the observed variations in the change in West Virginia LFPRs. In the second stage, using a fixed effects panel model, we find county demographics, education levels, income, access to interstate highways, and industry composition are useful covariates for explaining the variance contributions of the state, metro/non-metro and county factors.
The third manuscript uses cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks to determine whether the Unemployment Invariance Hypothesis exists in West Virginia. Using monthly labor force data from 1976 - 2022, we find mixed support for the unemployment invariance, added worker effect, and discouraged worker effect hypotheses over multiple sub-sample periods. These results suggest that labor markets are temporally-dynamic, and a one-size-fits-all approach could prove disadvantageous to growth. / Doctor of Philosophy / This dissertation focuses on labor market dynamics in West Virginia and the Appalachian Region. In the first of three manuscripts, we investigate how much U.S. state labor force participation rates move together nationally, and within the Appalachian Region. We find that how much labor force participation rates move together across the U.S. and within the Appalachian Region depends on the choice of time and state.
In the second manuscript, we examine how much West Virginia county labor force participation rates move together across the state and within the Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan regions. We also study how county characteristics such as industry composition and education levels influence the variation in how much labor force participation rates move together. We find that Non-metropolitan county labor force participation rates exhibit similar dynamic behavior and that education, personal income, access to highways, and industry composition of the counties influences how much the rates move together at the different levels.
In the third manuscript, we investigate whether changes in the unemployment rate in West Virginia result influences that state's labor force participation rate in the long-run. We find that evidence of said long-run relationship albeit changing over time. We posit that the relationship dynamics are largely explained by the ensuing labor market and economic conditions. By extension, labor market policies and interventions should be timely and flexible.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:VTETD/oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/113133 |
| Date | 11 January 2023 |
| Creators | Beverly, Joshua Paul |
| Contributors | Economics, Stewart, Shamar L., Neill, Clinton L., Moeltner, Klaus, Morgan, Kimberly L. |
| Publisher | Virginia Tech |
| Source Sets | Virginia Tech Theses and Dissertation |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Dissertation |
| Format | ETD, application/pdf |
| Coverage | West Virginia, United States |
| Rights | In Copyright, http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
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