Many papers have been presented on the study of change points detection. Nonetheless, we would like to point out that in dealing with the time series with switching regimes, we should also take the characteristics of change periods into account. Because many patterns of change structure in time series exhibit a certain kind of duration, those phenomena should not be treated as a mere sudden turning at a certain time.
In this paper, we propose procedures about change periods detection for nonlinear time series. One of the detecting statistical methods is an application of fuzzy classification and generalization of Inclan and Tiao’s result. Moreover, we develop the genetic-based searching procedure, which is based on the concepts of leading genetic model. Simulation results show that the performance of these procedures is efficient and successful. Finally, two empirical applications about change periods detection for Taiwan monthly visitors arrival and exchange rate are demonstrated.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/A2002000639 |
| Creators | 陳美惠 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 英文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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