當我們利用Shewhart管制圖(Shewhart control chart)或累積和管制圖(Cumulative-sum chart. CUSUM chart)來偵測製程時,通常假設製品係獨立取自一個服從均數μ和標準差為σ的獨立常態分配的管制下進行。但是若產品特性值呈現自相關時,這類管制圖就可能發生誤導的結果。本文利用時間序列模式來解決具相關變數的管制圖問題。並考慮利用非線性時間序列模式及特別原因管制圖(special-cause control chart)來檢視台灣經濟景氣指標是否處於控制中的狀態。並討論特別原因管制圖的連串長度分佈(run length distribution)。在最後的實例分析中,介紹自動控制的觀念。 / Traditionally, in the quality control process, such as: Shewhart control chart or CUSUM chart, it is assumed that the observation process follows an i.i.d normal distribution. If the assumption for independence fails, that is when the process exhibits type of autocorrelation, we need to find a more reliable decision method. In this paper, we will apply the time series analysis and structure changed concept to slove the serial correlation problem. The idea of automatic control can be applied in the explanation of this nonlinear process. Finally, a time series about the monitoring indicators of Taiwan is discussed in detail as an example.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/B2002003381 |
| Creators | 陳繼書, Chen, Gi Sue |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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