Wildlife diseases often occur under quantifiable and consistent patterns, which can be understood to statistically predict their occurrence and spread across landscapes. Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a neurodegenerative disease in the deer family Cervidae caused by a prion, a pathogenic and misfolded variant of a naturally occurring protein. Managing and controlling CWD is imperative for conservation of ecologically and economically important cervid species, but unclear transmission mechanisms within landscapes complicate evidence-based management. Gaps of information in the landscape ecology for CWD are particularly pronounced for areas with recent disease emergence and spread, such as within the CWD cluster in the Mid-Atlantic United States. Thus, I identified current gaps in information and sought to fill neglected areas of research, specifically focusing on landscape determinants for CWD occurrence and spread in the state of Virginia. In chapter 2, I conducted a scoping study that collected and synthesized decades of CWD research and identified trends with respect to statistical and mathematical modeling methods used, connectivity within the CWD research community, and the geographic areas from which studies were performed. In chapter 3, I investigated landscape determinants for CWD in Virginia using remote sensing landscape data and an epidemiological dataset from Virginia Department of Wildlife Resources (DWR) using diverse algorithms and model evaluation techniques. Finally, in chapter 4, I modeled landscape connectivity between confirmed CWD cases to examine potential paths and barriers to CWD spread across landscapes. My results indicate that landscape ecology was rarely incorporated throughout CWD's 50+ year history. I provide evidence that remotely-sensed landscape conditions can be used to predict the likelihood of CWD occurrence and connectivity in Virginia landscapes, suggesting plausible CWD spread. I suggest areas of future work by explicitly identifying gaps in CWD research and diagnostic methods from which models are based, and encourage further consideration of host's ecology in modeling. By integrating remotely-sensed data into my modeling framework, the workflow should be easily adaptable to new study areas or other wildlife diseases. / Master of Science / Understanding why diseases occur in some locations and not others can be a critical challenge for disease ecologists. One disease that has received significant attention from the media and scientific community is chronic wasting disease (CWD), which is caused by a misfolded protein called a prion. Virginia Department of Wildlife Resources (DWR) has identified a stark increase in the number of CWD cases since first discovered in 2009, which threatens white-tailed deer populations and a 500 million dollar industry used for conservation of Virginia wildlife species. Previous research found that CWD does not occur randomly on the landscape, but otherwise little is known about the landscape ecology of CWD. To provide insight on Virginia's CWD outbreak, I assessed methods used to investigate other CWD outbreaks in both space and time. Also, I used landscape data collected from satellites and data from CWD cases in Virginia, and applied statistical tools to identify patterns in the landscape that were linked with CWD cases. My results suggest that landscapes were rarely examined to understand CWD, and instead, researchers focused on understanding how populations will respond to the disease. I also provide evidence that, at least in Virginia, researchers can use satellite information with disease data to predict CWD on the landscape and estimate its spread. This information can be used by wildlife managers to control the disease. For example, disease surveillance can be increased in areas where CWD has been predicted, or herd sizes can be reduced in areas likely to promote disease spread. This information could also be used to tailor wildlife health regulations aimed to minimize the risk of other deer populations acquiring the disease. Ultimately, the landscape plays an important role in CWD, but research on this topic is limited; therefore, additional research is needed to understand and eventually control this disease affecting ecologically and culturally important game species.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:VTETD/oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/101081 |
| Date | 10 December 2020 |
| Creators | Winter, Steven Nicholas |
| Contributors | Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Escobar Quinonez, Luis E., Frimpong, Emmanuel A., Kirchgessner, Megan |
| Publisher | Virginia Tech |
| Source Sets | Virginia Tech Theses and Dissertation |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | ETD, application/pdf |
| Rights | In Copyright, http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
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