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Previous issue date: 2017-02-21 / O objetivo deste trabalho ? realizar um estudo comparativo com ajustes de
modelos de previs?es pelo m?todo de Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) e Box-Tiao
(ARIMAX) para precipita??o acumulada mensal em seis cidades do Nordeste
do Brasil, sendo escolhida de acordo com a classifica??o clim?tica de K?ppen.
Tendo como vari?veis ex?genas: temperaturas da superf?cie do mar do oceano
Atl?ntico e Pac?fico. Em todas as s?ries de precipita??o acumulada verificou-se
a presen?a do componente sazonal, al?m disso, devido ao pressuposto de
vari?ncia constante e normalidade dos dados n?o serem atendida, foi aplicado
na s?rie original ? transforma??o Box Cox. Atrav?s das medidas de qualidade
dos ajustes dos modelos pelo m?todo ARIMA e ARIMAX, temos que o modelo
ARIMAX evidenciou como o melhor ajuste aos dados em estudo, apresentando
menores valores para os crit?rios de informa??o AIC, erro m?dio e erro
quadr?tico m?dio. / The objective this work is realize a comparative study with adjustment of
previsions models by Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) and Box-Tiao (ARIMAX) methods
for monthly accumulated precipitation in six cities of Brazilian northeast,
choosing the cities according with K?ppen climatic classification. We've
exogenes variables: sea surface temperature of Atlantic and Pacific Ocean.In
all precipitations accumulated series were observerd the presence of sazonal
component, besides that, due to assumption of the constante variance and data
normality isn't reached, was applied in original serie the Box Cox
transformation.By the measures of quality of the models adjustments by ARIMA
and ARIMAX method, we've the ARIMAX model evidencied like the better
adjustment to data, showing lower values to AIC information criteria, mean error
and mean square error.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:IBICT/oai:repositorio.ufrn.br:123456789/23459 |
| Date | 21 February 2017 |
| Creators | Souza, Thiago Rodrigues de |
| Contributors | 77231295720, http://lattes.cnpq.br/5291232352923880, Gon?alves, Weber Andrade, 04507293464, http://lattes.cnpq.br/3901367142857642, Pereira, Marcelo Bourguignon, 10456673741, http://lattes.cnpq.br/9358366674842900, Santos, Alexandre Torres Silva dos, 03432339402, http://lattes.cnpq.br/6747678803291442, Silva, Cl?udio Mois?s Santos e, L?cio, Paulo S?rgio |
| Publisher | PROGRAMA DE P?S-GRADUA??O EM CI?NCIAS CLIM?TICAS, UFRN, Brasil |
| Source Sets | IBICT Brazilian ETDs |
| Language | Portuguese |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion, info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
| Source | reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFRN, instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, instacron:UFRN |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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