High total organic carbon (TOC) and low clay content are two criteria to identify the "sweet spots" in shale gas plays. Recently, machine learning has been proved to be effective to estimate TOC and clay from well loggings. The remaining questions are what algorithm we should choose in the first place and whether we can improve the already built models. Automatic machine learning (AutoML) appears as a promising tool to solve those realistic questions by training multiple models and compares them automatically. Two wells with conventional well loggings and elemental capture spectroscopy are selected from a shale gas play to test the AutoML's ability in TOC and clay estimation. TOC and clay content are extracted from the Schlumberger's ELAN interpretation and calibrated to cores. Generalizability is proved in the blind test well and the mean absolute test errors for TOC and clay estimation are 0.23% and 3.77%. 829 data points are used to generate the final models with the train-test ratio of 75:25. The mean absolute test errors are 0.26% and 2.68% for TOC and clay, respectively, which are very low for TOC ranging from 0-6% and clay from 35-65%. The results show the AutoML's success and efficiency in the estimation. The trained models are interpreted to understand the variables effects in predictions. 235 wells are selected through data quality checking and feed into the models to create TOC and clay distribution maps. The maps provide guidance on where to drill a new well for higher shale gas production. / Master of Science / Locating "sweet spots", where the shale gas production is much higher than the average areas, is critical for a shale reservoir's successful commercial exploitation. Among the properties of shale, total organic carbon (TOC) and clay content are often selected to evaluate the gas production potential. For TOC and clay estimation, multiple machine learning models have been tested in recent studies and are proved successful. The questions are what algorithm to choose for a specific task and whether the already built models can be improved. Automatic machine learning (AutoML) has the potential to solve the problems by automatically training multiple models and comparing them to achieve the best performance. In our study, AutoML is tested to estimate TOC and clay using data from two gas wells in a shale gas field. First, one well is treated as blind test well and the other is used as trained well to examine the generalizability. The mean absolute errors for TOC and clay content are 0.23% and 3.77%, indicating reliable generalization. Final models are built using 829 data points which are split into train-test sets with the ratio of 75:25. The mean absolute test errors are 0.26% and 2.68% for TOC and clay, respectively, which are very low for TOC ranging from 0-6% and clay from 35-65%. Moreover, AutoML requires very limited human efforts and liberate researchers or engineers from tedious parameter-tuning process that is the critical part of machine learning. Trained models are interpreted to understand the mechanism behind the models. Distribution maps of TOC and clay are created by selecting 235 gas wells that pass the data quality checking, feeding them into trained models, and interpolating. The maps provide guidance on where to drill a new well for higher shale gas production.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:VTETD/oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/105040 |
| Date | 21 September 2021 |
| Creators | Hu, Yue |
| Contributors | Mining Engineering, Ripepi, Nino S., Chen, Cheng, Keles, Cigdem |
| Publisher | Virginia Tech |
| Source Sets | Virginia Tech Theses and Dissertation |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | ETD, application/pdf |
| Rights | In Copyright, http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
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