The Basque Country is a northern Spanish region (Autonomous Community)
where, from 1960¿s, there is a organization called ETA that wants to
achieve its political goals by violent means. The Basque population is divided,
mainly, into the ones who support or reject the ETA¿s political goals
and its violent means. Also, the pressure of ETA and its supporters on the
Basque population are present in the daily life.
Taking into account the Basque scenario, in this PhD dissertation, we
are interested in how the di¿erent groups of people defined by their attitude
towards ETA evolve over the time, with two main aims:
¿ find out which the most relevant events that make changes in the attitude
evolution are,
¿ taking into account the relation between ETA¿s supporters and ETA¿s
member source, predict the attitude evolution in the next future in
order to see if the supporters group wanes and, as a consequence, ETA
also does.
To do that, on one hand, we use elections and Euskobarometro data (Euskobaromero
is a sociological statistical survey in the Basque Country), and
then, we build the mathematical models assuming the hypothesis that the
change of attitude, ideology or opinion may be socially transmitted. Therefore,
classical techniques in epidemiology are used to build and study these
models.
On the other hand, we should not forget that we want to study a problem
in Social Sciences, where data, coming from surveys, contain errors.
Therefore, during the development of this dissertation it is necessary to use
techniques to deal with uncertainty in the presented models. In fact, we use
some, trying to avoid in each new technique the disadvantages that appear
in the previous one.
The structure of this PhD dissertation is as follows. In Chapter 1 we
introduce the problem to be studied and make a historical overview of the
PhD thesis. In Chapter 2 we summarise the main facts in the history of ETA that we
consider relevant to the proper development of the present dissertation.
A firstmodel is presented in Chapter 3. Here, we divide the population of
the Basque Country depending on the political party they vote and classify
the political parties respect to their opinion on the idea of ¿independence
from Spain¿, one of the main goals of ETA. Thus, with data of general
elections, we build a type-epidemiological model and use the Latin Hypercube
Sampling technique to predict with uncertainty over the next election dates,
the dynamics of the population respect to the idea of ¿independence from
Spain¿.
In the Chapter 4, Euskobarometro data about the ¿population attitude
towards ETA¿ are used to build a model to find out if the ¿Law of Political
Parties¿ (LPP) passed in Jun 2002 had e¿ect on the attitude towards ETA
of the Basque Population. We use a bootstrapping technique to know if the
di¿erences between the model prediction and Euskobarometro data after LPP
are significative and quantify these di¿erences. In this case, bootstrapping is
the technique that allows us to deal with the model uncertainty.
In the Chapter 5, using the same model as in the Chapter 4 and Euskobarometro
data about the population attitude towards ETA since May 2005,
we predict with uncertainty the evolution dynamics of the groups providing
a model confidence band prediction over the next few years. To do that we
introduce a new computational technique to deal with the model uncertainty. / Tarazona Tornero, AC. (2014). Modelling with uncertainty the ideological evolution of a society with extreme groups [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/36068
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:upv.es/oai:riunet.upv.es:10251/36068 |
| Date | 03 March 2014 |
| Creators | Tarazona Tornero, Ana Celia |
| Contributors | Santonja Gómez, Francisco José, Villanueva Oller, Francisco Javier, Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto, Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Matemática Aplicada - Departament de Matemàtica Aplicada |
| Publisher | Universitat Politècnica de València |
| Source Sets | Universitat Politècnica de València |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion |
| Source | Riunet |
| Rights | http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/, info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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