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Forecasting Highly-Aggregate Internet Time Series Using Wavelet Techniques

The U.S. Coast Guard maintains a network structure to connect its nation-wide assets. This paper analyzes and models four highly aggregate traces of the traffic to/from the Coast Guard Data Network ship-shore nodes, so that the models may be used to predict future system demand. These internet traces (polled at 5â 40â intervals) are shown to adhere to a Gaussian distribution upon detrending, which imposes limits to the exponential distribution of higher time-resolution traces. Wavelet estimation of the Hurst-parameter is shown to outperform estimation by another common method (Sample-Variances). The First Differences method of detrending proved problematic to this analysis and is shown to decorrelate AR(1) processes where 0.65< phi1 <1.35 and correlate AR(1) processes with phi1 <-0.25. The Hannan-Rissanen method for estimating (phi,theta) is employed to analyze this series and a one-step ahead forecast is generated. / Master of Science

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:VTETD/oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/33223
Date28 August 2006
CreatorsEdwards, Samuel Zachary
ContributorsElectrical and Computer Engineering, Mili, Lamine M., DaSilva, Luiz A., Bell, Amy E.
PublisherVirginia Tech
Source SetsVirginia Tech Theses and Dissertation
Detected LanguageEnglish
TypeThesis
Formatapplication/pdf
RightsIn Copyright, http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
RelationThesis_Edwards.pdf

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