The aim of this paper is to investigate various versions of the Phillips curve and their inflation forecasting ability for Euro Area. We consider autoregressive distributed lag models and use two types of trend estimation -- successive (the trend is estimated before the remaining parameters are) and join, using exponential smoothing. The versions of the Phillips curve are evaluated by rolling and recursive window methods, various selection criteria for lag variables and different combination of the inflation indicators. To evaluate the forecasted values, we calculate the RMSE in three 7-year periods: 1993-1999 (run up Euro area), 2000-2006 (stable inflation period) and 2007-2013 (financial crisis). According to all our modifications, we find some models which achieve satisfying results in terms of the RMSE, albeit not for all forecasting periods. We notice that some models are satisfactory only in the stable period however not in the periods with low inflation and vice versa.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:nusl.cz/oai:invenio.nusl.cz:203770 |
| Date | January 2015 |
| Creators | Michálková, Simona |
| Contributors | Zouhar, Jan, Čížek, Ondřej |
| Publisher | Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze |
| Source Sets | Czech ETDs |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
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