This study presented the possibilities of the use of stock market cycles in the management of educational endowments. The literature review delineated the scope of cycles in research, and presented an explanation of technical and fundamental analysis techniques for security investment. / The statistical treatment of the data included a computer simulation for the derivation of cyclic effects. A Fourier transform routine was run on various sets of smoothed and detrended data. Weekly averages of the daily closing prices of the Dow-Jones Industrial Averages comprised the data. Fourier transforms and periodogram ordinates were calculated from the data set, and statistical tests were performed. / To validate the statistical method, a validation test was run on cycles well documented; these were the 4.0, 9.2, and 18.3 year cycles. The results from the validity tests confirmed the existence of these cycles and the validity of the statistical method. / As expected, cycles appeared in the smoothed data sets. The 11.0 year smoothing yielded a significant result at approximately 11.0 years. However, the cycle generated from this run is not as useful as cycles appearing at shorter periods. / Cycles which might be used in the formation of forecasting models for time series data were derived from data sets smoothed for cycles in the 6.0 year to 5.0 year time frame. The cycles derived from these data could be combined with other known cycles such as the 9.2 year and the 4.0 year along with long-range trend and short-range random effects. / Shorter cycles discovered in the 2.5 and 2.0 year smoothing runs produced results that could be used for the development of trading models. These models would be based on screening strategies derived from the amplitude and period of these cycles. / Recommendations for further research included the investigation of trading and forecasting models and their consequent testing. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 47-12, Section: A, page: 4250. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1986.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:fsu.edu/oai:fsu.digital.flvc.org:fsu_75970 |
| Contributors | FOUTS, DONALD BROCK., Florida State University |
| Source Sets | Florida State University |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Text |
| Format | 176 p. |
| Rights | On campus use only. |
| Relation | Dissertation Abstracts International |
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