This thesis analyzes the effects of external shocks and government policy responses on the current account in Kenya. We attempt to isolate two effects on the current account which arise from the impact of external shocks to the economy. The first one is attributed to a direct response by private agents to the shock. The second arises from the optimal response by the government to counteract the effects of the shock on the economy and depends on the government's objectives. It is hypothesized that these two effects can explain the behavior of the current account in many developing countries. / Much of the literature in developing countries ignores the indirect effect of government policy on private sector behavior and hence its effect on the current account. Moreover, the models emphasize empirical analysis with little or no theoretical foundation. / In this thesis, an intertemporal framework is postulated with rational optimizing agents. It is assumed that following an external shock, the rational behavior of economic agents is to adjust their production and spending behavior in an optimal manner. Depending on the degree of flexibility in the economy, the effect of this response is to reduce domestic absorption and thus improve the current account. At the same time, the government responds by undertaking policies which optimize its objectives given the shock. The overall effect may or may not improve the current account. / The reactions of both the government and the private sector are analyzed in the context of a game in which it is assumed that each agent takes the other's behavior into account when formulating economic decisions. Two types of equilibria are examined: a Nash non-cooperative concurrent game; and a non-cooperative Stackleberg structure. / The theoretical framework is along the lines of Conway who has undertaken a similar study for Turkey, a semi-industrialized economy. The model specification and the estimating equations are however modified to capture key features of the Kenyan economy. / The empirical results show that external shocks, particularly increases in the price of imported inputs and exchange rate devaluation have a contractionary effect on the Kenyan economy. Fox example, producers responded to an increase in the price of imported inputs by reducing the demand for the inputs as well as the demand for labor. As predicted by the theory, both the government and private agents responded to the shocks in an attempt to maximize their objectives. It is argued that the optimal responses of these agents are not necessarily in each other's interest implying that each agent will react to counteract the undesirable effects of the other's behavior. The interaction between the government and the private sector can be explained by a Stackleberg game structure where the government is the leader. Also, both the direct and indirect effects of the shocks are found to be important in explaining the behavior of the current account in Kenya.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:LACETR/oai:collectionscanada.gc.ca:QMM.28497 |
| Date | January 1994 |
| Creators | Mwau, Geoffrey. |
| Contributors | Handa, J. (advisor) |
| Publisher | McGill University |
| Source Sets | Library and Archives Canada ETDs Repository / Centre d'archives des thèses électroniques de Bibliothèque et Archives Canada |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Electronic Thesis or Dissertation |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Coverage | Doctor of Philosophy (Department of Economics.) |
| Rights | All items in eScholarship@McGill are protected by copyright with all rights reserved unless otherwise indicated. |
| Relation | alephsysno: 001425935, proquestno: NN00116, Theses scanned by UMI/ProQuest. |
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