M.Phil. (Economics) / The study of certain minerals and their relationship to economic indicators requires not only research to establish the economic significance of these commodities, but also the use of statistical techniques to place the data in context by analogy with cyclical events and changing economic circumstances. It is inevitable that a great deal of information will be generated, and that extensive use must be made of the computer throughout the work. The approach used involves the extensive use of graphical and statistical methods to demonstrate the market relationships with time and with selected economic indicators, of six non-ferrous minerals, lead, nickel, tin, copper, aluminium and zinc. These minerals were selected because they represent a good cross-section of the metals that find wide applications in industry, and are economically important. Comparative analyses are made of South Africa as a major producer and exporter of minerals, and of this country's main trading partners, West Germany, Japan and the USA, the major consumers and importers of minerals in the Western World. The statistical information for this study covers a 30 year period, namely 1953 to 1982, and is examined on the premise that general economic variables are causal factors in determining the cyclical behaviour of the market for minerals. Therefore it is obligatory to first examine and explain the nature of business and market cycles and events in the Republic of South Africa, the USA, West Germany, and Japan, and then to relate these to the supply and consumption of the minerals concerned. The relationships between production of minerals for use as raw materials, the production of refined mineral products and the consumption, prices, and stocks of these commodities are explored, and the behaviour of these parameters is explained by reference to familiar and well-used economic indicators such as the Gross National Product (GNP) and the Consumer Price Index(CPI). Subtleties in the relationships between the selected minerals and economic indicators are presented. Two.. fundamental approaches, graphical and statistical, are used in the formal analysis of the problem of quantifcation of the significance of minerals as economic indicators. Simultaneous enhancement, both graphically and statistically, between the parameters has important implications regarding the conclusions drawn in this thesis. A central issue is the statistical evaluation of all the possible combinations of the selected minerals and economic indicators, based on correlation coefficients. Promising results are classified on the basis of high levels of correlation between the various parameters. The consistency with which a mineral achieves high correlation coefficients is defined by a scoring system, whereby sequences of correlation coefficient values are totalled and averaged. Cause and effect cannot simply be assumed, nor can it be proved by statistics. However, statistical verification procedures provide a great deal of assistance in the interpretation of correlation coefficients. The results obtained from the statistical analysis show that some mineral commodities are more closely linked to overall economic conditions than others. These are aluminium, copper and lead...
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:uj/uj:4208 |
| Date | 03 March 2014 |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Rights | University of Johannesburg |
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