This dissertation consists of three papers exploring how critical historical moments can produce different electoral patterns in Latin American countries. Through the comprehension of times in which new institutions emerge (or are reformed), the articles investigate how factors can move voters beyond what the discipline has acknowledged as the typical patterns of voting behavior. Specifically, the papers look at elements such as biased information exposure during the expansion of the voting franchise, changes in technological and procedural rules of elections, and long-term exposure to autocratic government repression on the eve of the re-birth of democratic institutions.
The first paper studies the 1958 Chilean presidential election to assess the impact of pro-partisan informational channels on aggregate voting patterns by using information retrieved from national election archives and an original dataset for radio stations across the territory. The analysis exploits as-if random variation in signal reception using a linear regression model to estimate the effect of exposure to pro-partisan radio signal strength on electoral results. Results show that exposure to partisan radio substantially increases electoral support for the ideologically closest candidates, providing persuasive evidence regarding the relevance of informational control.
The second article explores the effect of the different periods of Pinochet’s repression machinery on the 1988 plebiscite results by using a two-part methodological strategy, achieved through collecting ecological data of repression cases, pre-existing security infrastructure, aggregate electoral outcomes, and survey responses. The first strategy employs a two-stage least square model to observe the possible influence of repression’s geographical variation on electoral outcomes. The second approach looks at a multilevel logistic regression with survey observations to assess the possible influence of different levels of repression on individual self-reported vote choice. Results show a null relationship between the variables of interest, but it is not possible to reject the idea that repression doomed Pinochet’s regime because its effect could be mediated by television and campaign ads.
Lastly, the third paper investigates how the introduction of new voting technologies can decrease the rate of residual votes by limiting the capacity of political and bureaucratic agents to intervene during the vote-counting moment. Based on district-level data for elections in Peru and Paraguay, the analysis of this research uses a comparative framework taking advantage of the conditions under which the implementation of electronic voting happened by using a group-time difference-in-difference model. The quantitative exploration is complemented by in-depth interviews conducted in both countries. Results show that the implementation of electronic voting is associated with a decrease in the rate of residual votes that can be attributed to the user—error reduction and the limitation of political activists’ capacities to influence the rate of null votes.
The findings of the different articles can serve as an important addition to the broader literature on comparative politics and political behavior in Latin America. Moreover, they highlight the relevance of observing how unique conditions and novel institutional settings might be essential to revisit crucial historical moments and comprehensively understand factors that shape political dynamics.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:bu.edu/oai:open.bu.edu:2144/46377 |
| Date | 17 June 2023 |
| Creators | Fernández Plaza, Miguel Angel |
| Contributors | Boas, Taylor C. |
| Source Sets | Boston University |
| Language | en_US |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis/Dissertation |
| Rights | Attribution 4.0 International, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
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