Thesis (PhD (Agric) (Agricultural Economics)--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A complex and volatile decision-making environment and constant pressure on product prices, due
to the cost-price squeeze, complicates decision-making for grain farmers in the Western Cape.
Furthermore, available alternative crops and cultivation practices are limited due to local soil and
climatic conditions. The farm system itself is complex due to the interdependence of a variety of
factors and the synergy resulting from specific sequences of cash and pasture crops.
The aim of this research project was to establish a method that would contribute to identifying
strategies to advance the profitability of grain production. Research in the grain industry is
traditionally specialised within specific fields, such as, agronomy, soil science, entomology,
agricultural economics, etc., causing a fragmentation of knowledge. To ensure that the systems
nature of a complex farm is accommodated, various related research domains should be
acknowledged and incorporated.
The use of expert group discussions, as a research method, is suitable, firstly, for gathering
information in a meaningful manner and, secondly, to stimulate individual creativity by presenting
alternative perspectives provided by various participating experts. In support of expert group
discussions, simulation models in the form of multi-period whole-farm models were developed.
This type of modelling supports the accurate financial simulation of farms, while the user friendliness
and adaptability thereof can accurately accommodate typical farm interrelationships,
and quickly measure the financial impact of suggested changes to parameters. Suggestions made
by experts during the group discussions can thus be quickly introduced into the model. The
financial implications are instantly available to prevent further exploration of non-viable plans and
to fine-tune the viable plans. Participants in the group discussions represent fields of expertise
such as agronomy, soil science, entomology, plant pathology, the agricultural chemical industry,
agricultural mechanisation. Also represented are professionals such as extension officers from
local agribusinesses, local producers and agricultural economists. The dynamics of the group
discussions are supported by each participant’s specific strengths and perspectives.
For each relatively homogeneous production area of the Western Cape, a typical farm budget
model was developed, which served as the basis for the group discussions. The budget models
measure profitability in terms of the IRR (internal rate of return on capital investment) and
affordability in terms of expected cash flow. For the Swartland, the homogeneous areas identified
were Koeberg/Wellington, the Middle Swartland and the Rooi Karoo, and for the Southern Cape,
the homogenous areas identified were, the Goue Rûens, Middle Rûens and Heidelberg Vlakte. A model of a typical farm in the Wesselsbron area was developed for comparison with the Western
Cape farms. For each area the expected impact of climate change, fluctuating product and input
prices, and the possible impact of partial conversion to bio-fuel production were evaluated in terms
of expected impact on profitability. Various area-specific strategies were identified that could
enhance the profitability of grain production: most of the strategies focused on optimising
machinery usage and expanding or intensifying the livestock enterprise. The repeated successful
use of the model in support of the expert groups in all the chosen study areas illustrates the value
thereof for identifying and evaluating plans to increase the profitability of small grain production. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: 'n Komplekse en wisselvallige besluitnemingsomgewing, en konstante druk op produkpryse weens
die koste/prys knyptang bemoeilik besluitneming op graanplase in die Wes-Kaap terwyl die
beskikbare alternatiewe verbouingsgewasse en -praktyke beperk is weens plaaslike grond en
klimatologiese eienskappe. Die boerderystelsel self is kompleks weens die interafhanklikheid van
die dele daarvan en die sinergisme verkry deur byvoorbeeld die spesifieke orde van opeenvolging
van kontant- en weidingsgewasse in die wisselboustelsel. Hierdie navorsingsprojek se doel is om 'n werkwyse te vestig wat die identifisering van strategieë te ondersteun wat moontlik die winsgewendheid van graanproduksie kan bevorder. Navorsing in die graanbedryf is tradisioneel
gespesialiseerd binne 'n spesifieke navorsingsveld soos agronomie, grondkunde, entomologie en
landbou-ekonomie. Dit gee daartoe aanleiding dat elk van hierdie velde op dimensies van die
boerderystelsel fokus asof dit in isolasie bestaan. Om te verseker dat die stelselsgeaardheid van 'n
komplekse boerdery effektief verreken word behoort navorsing erkenning te gee die
interafhanklikheid van die dimensies van 'n boerdery.
Ekspert groepbesprekings is 'n navorsingsmetode wat eerstens geskik is om kennis sinvol byeen te
bring en tweedens om kreatiwiteit by deelnemers te stimuleer deur die blootstelling aan nuwe
perspektiewe van kundiges van ander spesialiteitsvelde. Ter ondersteuning van die ekspert
groepbesprekings is simulasiemodelle in die vorm van multi-periode geheelboerderybegrotings
ontwikkel. Die tipe modellering ondersteun die akkurate simulasie van boerderye terwyl die
gebruikersvriendelikheid en aanpasbaarheid daarvan die tipiese interverwantskappe van 'n
boerdery akkuraat weergee en die impak van aanpassings aan die parameters van die boerdery
model vinnig kan meet. Voorstelle deur die deelnemende eksperts kan dus vinnig aangebring word
en die finansiële implikasie is dadelik beskikbaar. Deelnemers aan die ekspertgroepbesprekings
het velde verteenwoordig soos agronomie, grondkunde, entomologie, die landbou chemiese
bedryf, landbou meganisasie, plantpatologie, voorligtingsbeamptes van plaaslike agribesighede,
plaaslike produsente en landbou-ekonome. Die dinamika van die groepbesprekings word
ondersteun deur elke deelnemer se spesifieke sterkpunte en perspektief.
Vir elke homogene produksiegebied in die Wes-Kaap is 'n aparte begrotingsmodel van 'n tipiese
plaas vir daardie area ontwikkel. Hierdie modelle het gedien as die basis van die
groepbesprekings. Die modelle meet die winsgewendheid van boerderye oor die langtermyn deur
middel van die IOK (interne opbrengskoers op kapitaal investering) en die bekostigbaarheid in
terme van verwagte kontantvloei. Binne die Swartland is die Koeberg/Wellington, Middel Swartland
en Rooi Karoo as homogeen geïdentifiseer en vir die Suid-Kaap die areas van die Goue Rûens,
die Middel Rûens en die Heidelberg Vlakte. 'n Tipiese plaas model is ook vir die Wesselsbron area
ontwikkel om te vergelyk met die Wes-Kaap areas se modelle. Vir elke area is die verwagte impak
van klimaatveranderings, fluktuerende produk- en insetpryse en die moontlike impak van 'n biobrandstofbedryf
geëvalueer in terme van die verwagte impak op winsgewendheid. Verskeie area
spesifieke strategieë is geïdentifiseer wat moontlik die winsgewendheid van graanproduksie kan
bevorder. Die meeste strategieë fokus op die optimalisering van masjineriegebruik en die
uitbreiding of intensifisering van die veevertakkings. Die herhaalde suksesvolle gebruik van die
modelle ter ondersteuning van die ekspertgroepe in al die gekose studie areas illustreer die
waarde daarvan vir die identifisering en evaluering van planne om die winsgewendheid van
kleingraanproduksie te verhoog.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/5269 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Hoffmann, Willem Hendrik |
| Contributors | Kleynhans, T. E., University of Stellenbosch. Faculty of Agrisciences. Dept. of Agricultural Economics. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | Unknown |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | 203 p. : ill., maps |
| Rights | University of Stellenbosch |
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