Using a simple linear regression model for estimation could give misleading results
about the relationship between Yt, and Xt, . Possible problems involve (1) feedback from
the output series to the inputs, (2) omitted time-lagged input terms, (3) an auto correlated
disturbance series and, (4) common autocorrelation patterns shared by Y and X that
can produce spurious correlations. The primary aim of this study was therefore to use
the Box-Jenkins Transfer Function analysis to fit a model that related petroleum
consumption to disposable income> The final Transfer Function Model
z1t=)C(1-w1 B)/((1-δ1 B) B^5 Z(t^((x) +(1-θ1 B)at significantly described the data.
Forecasts generated from this model show that petroleum consumption will hit a record of up to 4.8636 in 2014 if disposable income is augmented. There is 95% confidence that the
forecasted value of petroleum consumption will lie between 4.5276 and 5.1997 in 2014. / Thesis (M. Com. (Statistics) North-West University, Mafikeng Campus, 2005
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:nwu/oai:dspace.nwu.ac.za:10394/11344 |
| Date | January 2005 |
| Creators | Moroke, N.D. |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
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