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Single Shot Hit Probability Computation For Air Defense Based On Error Analysis

In this thesis, an error analysis based method is proposed to calculate single shot
hit probability (PSSH) values of a fire control system. The proposed method
considers that a weapon and a threat are located in three dimensional space. They
may or may not have relative motion in three dimensions with respect to each
other. The method accounts for the changes in environmental conditions. It is
applicable in modeling and simulation as well as in top down design of a fire
control system to reduce the design cost. The proposed method is applied to a
specific fire control system and it is observed that PSSH values highly depend on
the distance between the weapon and the threat, hence they are time varying.
Monte Carlo simulation is used to model various defense scenarios in order to
evaluate a heuristic developed by G&uuml / lez (2007) for weapon-threat assignment and
scheduling of weapons&rsquo / shots. The heuristic uses the proposed method for PSSH
and time of flight computation. It is observed that the difference between the
results of simulation and heuristic depends on the scenario used.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:METU/oai:etd.lib.metu.edu.tr:http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/3/12608509/index.pdf
Date01 June 2007
CreatorsYuksel, Inci
ContributorsOzdemirel, Nur Evin
PublisherMETU
Source SetsMiddle East Technical Univ.
LanguageEnglish
Detected LanguageEnglish
TypeM.S. Thesis
Formattext/pdf
RightsTo liberate the content for public access

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