<p>Modelling and analysis of recurrent infectious disease epidemics often depends on the reconstruction of a time-varying transmission rate from historical reports of cases or deaths. Statistically rigorous estimation methods for time-varying transmission rates exist but are too computationally demanding to apply to a time series longer than a few decades. We present a computationally ecient estimation method that is suitable for very long data sets. Our method, which uses a discrete-time approximation to the SIR model for infectious diseases, is easy to implement and outperforms the classic Fine and Clarkson estimation method.</p> / Master of Science (MSc)
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:mcmaster.ca/oai:macsphere.mcmaster.ca:11375/14230 |
| Date | 10 1900 |
| Creators | deJonge, Michelle S. |
| Contributors | Earn, David, Mathematics and Statistics |
| Source Sets | McMaster University |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | thesis |
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