Recent research has shown that climate change had and will likely continue to have impacts on biological processes, including the propagation of infectious and zoonotic diseases. Assessments of local level impacts at the human-wildlife interface are imperative for stakeholders and policy makers, and empirical review of such research is undoubtedly necessary to understand the current state of the field, gaps of knowledge, and to identify future lines of research. In that vein, this thesis focuses on the impacts of climate change on disease at the human-wildlife interface. Specifically, my thesis works to quantify the recent temporal and spatial distribution of empirical research linking climate change with changes in the burden of infectious diseases (Chapter 2). This retrospective scoping of the last five years of empirical research identified if, and to what extent, there are biases in the diseases, species, or geographic areas studied within this scientific field. My study revealed both geographic and topical biases within the scope of recent literature, with an overwhelming emphasis on vector-borne diseases in temperate areas. There was also unequal representation in publication demographics of authors and institutions with most research originating from well developed countries. As a proof-of-concept case study, my thesis provides an empirical assessment of the plausible climatic drivers of a wildlife-disease transmission risk in an understudied region (Chapter 3), which could function to fill some of the identified research gaps in Chapter 2. Therein, my work assessed the impacts of climate variation from the last century on the environmental suitability of the rabies host Desmodus rotundus (common vampire bat) in Latin America. Findings revealed that average and standard deviation of temperature were the most important drivers of D. rotundus geographic distribution according to species' records between 1901 and 2019. Nevertheless, high uncertainty was detected regarding the predictability of D. rotundus environmental suitability across the United States-Mexico border and in the Andes Mountains of Chile. The overall modeling efforts did, however, reveal a northward distributional shift of the rabies reservoir as a likely response to climate change. Together, studies contained in this thesis provide empirical, retrospective evidence that demonstrates the effects of climate change on the increased risk of disease transmission at the human-wildlife interface. / Master of Science / Climate change is understood as the change in global or regional climate patterns, including variations of temperature and humidity factors beyond normal ranges, mostly attributed to increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Climate change is expected to influence many biological systems and presents an imminent threat to almost all organisms and geographic areas across the globe. Previous studies suggest that climate change will increase the burden of infectious diseases, including those originating from wildlife. This thesis aims to assess the availability of empirical evidence supporting the idea of a link between climate change and infectious diseases of wildlife origin. Chapter 2 examines recent scientific literature assessing climate change and infectious disease, and identifies biases in the diseases, species, and geographic areas commonly studied. This study found that literature generally focused on diseases transmitted by arthropods (e.g., insects, arachnids, or crustaceans) in temperate areas. There was little focus on diseases transmitted directly (e.g., via bites) or in non-temperate areas (e.g., tropics). Chapter 3 attempts to address issues detected in Chapter 2 by studying a directly-transmitted infectious disease in the tropics. More specifically, Chapter 3 assessed the impacts of climate variation from the last century on the distribution of the common vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus), which is a known rabies host in Latin America. Chapter 3 revealed that temperature variables were the largest drivers of common vampire bat distribution. Nevertheless, high uncertainty was detected regarding the vampire bat's ability to invade new areas such as the continental United States-Mexico border or the lowlands to the Andes Mountains in Chile. Together, studies contained in this thesis provide support for current and future research on the study of climate change as an amplifier for the risk of infectious diseases.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:VTETD/oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/104158 |
| Date | 13 July 2021 |
| Creators | Van de Vuurst, Victoria Paige |
| Contributors | Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Escobar Quinonez, Luis E., Ford, W. Mark, Karpanty, Sarah M. |
| Publisher | Virginia Tech |
| Source Sets | Virginia Tech Theses and Dissertation |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | ETD, application/pdf |
| Rights | In Copyright, http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
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