本研究透過文字探勘對中國大陸2011年上市公司的MD&A進行分析，並搭配財務資訊相互比對，分析中國大陸上市公司所揭露的MD&A是否誇大，再透過實證研究分析造成中國大陸上市公司MD&A揭露誇大與否的原因。本研究樣本為2011年中國大陸所有上市公司所揭露的MD&A及相關財務資訊，MD&A非量化資訊係運用Stanford Word Segmenter斷詞資料庫、正負向詞典、TFIDF、K-means等技術進行群集分析，並結合財務資訊的K-Means群集分析，分析出中國大陸2011年上市公司MD&A揭露是否誇大；再代入公司規模、管理階層對風險的偏好程度、獲利能力、償債能力等變數，分析影響公司MD&A揭露誇大與否的因素。研究結果顯示，公司規模、管理階層對風險的偏好程度與公司MD&A資訊揭露傾向於不誇大呈顯著負相關，而公司獲利能力、公司償債能力與公司MD&A資訊揭露傾向於不誇大呈顯著正相關。本研究希望提供投資人另一種分析MD&A的方式，並建議投資人運用上市公司所揭露的MD&A資訊時，需額外考慮公司MD&A揭露有無誇大的情勢，並作適度的調整，以降低投資風險，擬定正確的投資決策。 / This study presented a way to analyze MD&A on listed companies in 2011 in China via text mining, crossing comparison with its fiscal information, validating whether disclosed MD&A on the China listed companies is overstated and its possible factors by empirical study. The research sample is the disclosed MD&A and related financial information on China listed companies in 2011. Qualitative narrative MD&A utilizes Stanford Word Segmenter, NTUSD, TFIDF and K-means performing cluster analysis, combining K-means cluster analysis of financial information, figuring out disclosed MD&A of China listed companies in 2011 exaggerated. By the variables of company scale, the Management of risk preference, profit, liquidity analyzes the effect factor of whether disclosed MD&A exaggerated or not. According to the research, the disclosed MD&A tending not to exaggerate is significantly and negatively related to company scale and the management of risk preference. Profitability and liquidity are significantly and positively relationship to disclosed MD&A tending not to exaggerate. The research is providing another way of reading MD&A with investors, suggesting investors need to take whether disclosed MD&A is overstated into consideration, and adjusting in appropriate in reducing the investment risk when making Investment decisions.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0100353054 |
| Creators | 鄭凱文 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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