The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) is a growth and yield modeling system widely-used for predicting stand and tree-level attributes for management and planning applications in North American forests. The accuracy of FVS predictions for a range of tree and stand level attributes depends a great deal on the performance of the diameter increment model and its predictions of change in diameter at breast height (DBH) over time. To address the challenge of predicting growth in highly variable and geographically expansive forest systems, FVS was designed to include an internal calibration algorithm that makes use of growth observations, when available, from permanent inventory plots. The basic idea is that observed growth rates on a collection of remeasured trees are used to adjust or "calibrate" FVS diameter growth predictions. Therefore, DBH modeling was the focus of this investigation.
Five methods were proposed for local calibration of individual tree DBH growth predictions and compared to two sets of results generated without calibration. Data from the US Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program were used to test the methods for eleven widely-distributed forest tree species in Virginia. Two calibration approaches were based on median prediction errors from locally-observed DBH increments spanning a five year average time interval. Two were based on simple linear regression models fitted to the locally-observed prediction errors, and one method employed a mixed effects regression model with a random intercept term estimated from locally-observed DBH increments. Data witholding, specifically a leave-one-out cross-validation was used to compare results of the methods tested.
Results showed that any of the calibration approaches tested in general led to improved accuracy of DBH growth predictions, with either of the median-based methods or regression based methods performing better than the random-effects-based approach. Equivalence testing showed that median or regression-based local calibration methods met error tolerances within ± 12% of observed DBH increments for all species with the random effects approach meeting a larger tolerance of ± 17%. These results showed improvement over uncalibrated models, which failed to meet tolerances as high as ± 30% for some species in a newly-fitted DBH growth model for Virginia, and as high as ± 170% for an existing model fitted to data from a much larger region of the Southeastern United States. Local calibration of regional DBH increment models provides an effective means of substantially reducing prediction errors when a relatively small set of observations are available from local sources such as permanent forest inventory plots, or the FIA database. / MS / The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) is a growth and yield model widely-used for predicting stand dynamics, management and decision support in North American forests. Diameter increment is a major component in modeling tree growth. The system of integrated analytical tools in FVS is primarily based on the performance of the diameter increment model and the subsequent use of predicted in diameter at breast height (DBH) over time in forecasting tree attributes.
To address the challenge of predicting growth in highly variable and geographically expansive forest systems, FVS was designed to include an internal calibration algorithm that makes use of growth observations, when available, from permanent inventory plots. The basic idea was that observed growth rates on a small set of remeasured trees are used to adjust or “calibrate” FVS growth predictions. The FVS internal calibration was the subject being investigated here. Five alternative methods were proposed attributed to a specific site or stand of interest and compared to two sets of results, which were based on median prediction errors, generated without calibration.
Results illustrated that median-based methods or regression based methods performed better than the random-effects-based approach using independently observed growth data from Forest Service FIA re-measurements in Virginia. Local calibration of regional DBH increment models provides an effective means of substantially reducing prediction errors. The results of this study should also provide information to evaluate the efficiency of FVS calibration alternatives and a possible method for future implementation.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:VTETD/oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/97321 |
| Date | 20 September 2018 |
| Creators | Cankaya, Ergin Cagatay |
| Contributors | Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Radtke, Philip J., Burkhart, Harold E., Thomas, Valerie A. |
| Publisher | Virginia Tech |
| Source Sets | Virginia Tech Theses and Dissertation |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | ETD, application/pdf |
| Rights | In Copyright, http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
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